ASX 200 afternoon report: 4 June 2024

The ASX 200 trades 14 points (-0.18%) lower at 7647 at 3.00pm AEST.

After a two-day gain of 178 points (+2.34%), including a seventh consecutive rise on a Monday, the ASX 200 has today found itself in a holding pattern awaiting an important update on the health of the Australian economy.

In the lead-up to tomorrow's Australian Q1 2024 GDP release, the final partials released today have proved to be a mixed bag. Net exports and company profits rose less than expected, while inventories rose more than expected. The net outcome is that the market expects GDP to increase by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for an annual growth rate of 1.2%, the slowest growth rate since 2000 outside of the pandemic.

Ahead of tomorrow’s GDP release, the rates market has removed the risk of an RBA rate hike before year-end, built in after last week's higher-than-expected inflation reading. In its place, there resides a 30% chance of an Reserve Bank of America (RBA) rate cut in December.

ASX 200 stocks

Banking sector

A prospect that has supported the big banks today saw notable gains:

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) increased by 0.95% to AUD 122.45
• National Australia Bank (NAB) added 0.65% to AUD 34.68
• Westpac Banking Corporation (Westpac) gained 0.56% to AUD 26.78
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) added 0.24% to AUD 28.65.

Iron ore sector

The big miners have fallen after the price of iron ore dropped over 4% overnight to USD 110.85, following a May where prices hovered around USD 120.00:

• Fortescue Metals Group fell 1.43% to AUD 24.42
• Mineral Resources dropped 1.09% to AUD 71.11
• BHP Group decreased by 0.94% to AUD 44.39
• Rio Tinto slipped 0.46% to AUD 127.93.

Oil stocks

Crude oil closed lower overnight at USD 74.22 (-3.60%), hitting its lowest in four months due to concerns that the OPEC+ plan announced over the weekend might increase supply amid weaker demand in the last quarter of 2024:

• Beach Energy lost 2.38% to AUD 1.64
• Viva Energy dropped 2% to AUD 3.39
• Santos fell 1.76% to AUD 7.53
• Woodside declined 1.56% to AUD 27.50.

Gold sector

Gold miners have gained after the bullion price rebounded above USD 2350 overnight, driven by the release of a soft US manufacturing PMI which bolstered expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.

• Perseus Mining added 3.66% to AUD 2.40
• Regis Resources increased by 0.83% to AUD 1.82
• Northern Star gained 0.63% to AUD 14.34
• Gold Road Resources added 0.31% to AUD 1.61.

ASX 200 technical analysis

After the passing of last week's storm at month end, we suspect that into the final month of financial year 2024, will see a period of sideways trading as the ASX 200 traces out a five-Wave "ABCDE" type Elliott Wave correction before an eventual break higher.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 4 June 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}