ASX 200 afternoon report: 30 January 2024

The ASX200 trades 11 points (+0.15%) higher at 7589 at 3.00 pm AEDT.

With Wall Street in imperious form overnight, the ASX 200 raced out of the gates today for an early 50-point gain, looking for its seventh consecutive day of gains. At its intraday high of 7630.50, the ASX 200 today recaptured all the ground it lost during its 4% sell-off to the mid-January 7322 low.

If there was a blemish to be found, the index fell narrowly short of breaking the 7632.8 record high from August 2021, encouraging sellers to step in after lunch. Whether the ASX 200 gets another chance at record highs after tomorrow's all-important Q4 CPI data remains to be seen.

For those wondering, Q4 headline inflation is expected to increase by 0.8% for an annual rate of 4.3%. The RBA's preferred measure of inflation, the trimmed mean, is expected to rise by 0.9% QoQ, allowing annual trimmed mean inflation to ease to 4.3%. This would see the annual rate of trimmed mean fall below the RBA's forecast of 4.5%.

Following today's woeful retail sales data for December (-2.7% MoM vs -1.7% expected), a soft CPI would cement expectations of RBA rate cuts in the second half of 2024. Currently, the first RBA rate cut is 50% priced for June and fully priced for September.

Today’s market movement

Tech sector

Local tech stocks gained today, supported by record highs overnight for mega tech companies Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon.

• Megaport: +29.86% to $12.70 after a blockbuster trading update
• Appen: +7.58% to $0.35c
• Afterpay owner Block: + 6.69% to $104.52
• Zip: + 5.10% to $0.77c

Mining sector

The big miners extended their gains following recent stimulus announcements in China.

• Mineral Resources: +1.67% to $60.83
• Fortescue: + 1.56% to $29.71
• Rio Tinto: +0.66% to $132.67
• BHP: +0.47% to $47.09

Twelve months ago, the price of uranium was trading at $50 per tonne. Today, it trades at around $100 per tonne.

• Deep Yellow: +6.72% to $1.43
• Bannerman: +5.75% to $3.59
• Paladin: + 2% to $1.25

Financial Sector

Looking for an eleventh week of gains, the ASX 200 financial sector has faltered.

• AMP: -2.86% to $0.93c
• Westpac: -0.54% to $23.80
• ANZ: -0.30% to $26.78
• Macquarie: -0.21% to $187.23
• NAB: -0.2% to $32.08
• CBA made a fresh record high at $116.94 before sellers stepped in to send it lower to $115.89

ASX 200 technical analysis

After completing a corrective pullback at the mid-January 7322 low, the expectation was to retest the 7633 double top, which has now been achieved. More significant battles now need to be fought. To open up a move towards 7900, the ASX 200 needs to see a sustained break above the year-to-date highs at 7633.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 30 January 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}