Central banks preview: investors poised for big week
This week, the focus is on interest rates with pending decisions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
Currently the CME FedWatch tool forecasts a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut by May 2024, with a 60% possibility of a cut at the March meeting. On Thursday, the BoE and ECB will decide on rates. The BoE board members are widely expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, while the ECB is seen keeping its main refinancing rate at 4.5%, with no change expected for the deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has this round-up of what to expect.
(AI Video Transcript)
The US Federal Reserve
The US Federal Reserve is having a meeting to decide on interest rates, and the announcement will come on Wednesday. Recent information shows that the job market is slowing down and the cost of things is not increasing as quickly, which means that interest rates are likely to stay the same for a third time in a row. However, investors are really interested in knowing when the Federal Reserve will start lowering rates. There is a tool that predicts a 90% chance of a rate cut by May 2024, with a 60% chance of a cut in March.
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank
On Thursday, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (ECB) will also announce their interest rate decisions, and this will be a big deal for the markets. It is widely expected that the Bank of England will keep its interest rates at the same level. The people who make the decisions have said before that they want to keep rates high for a while because prices have been going up a lot. After that, everyone will be waiting to hear from the ECB. Some experts think that the rates will stay the same, but one person who works for the ECB said that they might lower rates sometime next year because prices in Europe haven't been going up very fast.
Overall, a lot of people are really excited to see what the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and ECB decide about interest rates. It's most likely that the Bank of England and the ECB will keep rates the same, but everyone is curious about when the Federal Reserve will start lowering rates.
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