Early Morning Call: Shell warns on earnings as refining margins drop

Macro overview

US equity markets consolidated yesterday after two days of strong gains. The Dow Jones fell by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq ended the session 0.25% lower.

Overnight the session was mixed in the APAC region. In Australia, trade surplus narrowed to a six-month low - A$8.32 billion - in August, below market forecasts of a A$10.1 billion surplus. Exports grew by 3%, while imports increased 4% compared to last month.

For San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, the path has been very clear: "we are going to raise the rate until we get into restrictive territory, and then we are going to hold it there" until inflation comes down closer to 2%. In an Interview with Bloomberg yesterday Daly reiterated the Fed's commitment to restore price stability, and it particularly waiting for two important sets of data. She hopes tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) will confirm the start of a hiring slowdown.

Earlier this week, JOLTs openings fell to their lowest level since June 2021. Current expectations for non-farm payrolls are 250,000 job creations in September. If actual figures were to match that forecast, it should be the lowest number of job creations since December 2020.

The San Francisco Fed president would also like to see next week's CPI showing underlying price pressures either stabilising or falling. She could be disappointed there. If the headline figure is expected to fall to 8.1%, economists see core CPI rise accelerating to 6.5%.

The Fed is expected to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike when it meets early next month.

Equity overview

Elsewhere on the equity market, Shell warns this morning that its third quarter (Q3) profits will be weakened by a sharp drop in refining margins and expects "significantly" weaker earnings from natural gas trading.

N Brown posted an 82.4% drop in adjusted profit before tax and revised its profit guidance down.

Imperial Brands announced £1 billion share buyback programme, and says that total capital returns in full-year 23 (FY23), including ordinary dividends and share buybacks, are expected to exceed £2bn.

Levi Strauss & Company is set to post its third quarter earnings after market close tonight. Analysts anticipate earnings of 37 cents per share, gathering pace after the 29 cents reported three months ago, but some 23% lower than the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is forecast to increase by 6.7% to $1.6bn.

Levi Strauss can count on the strength of its brand, but like many other retailers, it has to face supply chain issues, in an adverse economic environment. Investors will be particularly attentive to the group guidance, which at the moment stands at $1.50-$1.56 for the full year.

Constellation Brands Inc is poised to release its second quarter (Q2) earnings before the US opening bell. The maker of Corona beer is expected to report an 18% increase in earnings per share to $2.78. Revenue should reach $2.50bn.

Commodities

Oil prices are holding at the new three-week high set yesterday. OPEC+ agreed on a two million barrels per day (bpd) cut yesterday, saying it was an adequate response in a context of rising interest rates and weakening global economy.

US president Joe Biden called the decision "short-sighted" and said he would continue to assess whether to release further strategic oil stocks to lower prices. The next OPEC+ meeting will take place on 4 December.

OPEC+ will move to meet every six months instead of monthly meetings. The EIA confirmed the decline across the board announced by the API on Tuesday.

Crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels last week. U.S. gasoline stocks shrank by 4.7mn barrels, and distillate stockpiles fell by 3.4Mln barrels has context menu