EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY consolidate ahead of central bank meetings
Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY ahead of Fed, ECB and BoJ central bank meetings.
EUR/USD is seen heading back down again
EUR/USD is seen coming off again ahead of this week’s key US inflation data and Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meetings.
An Elliott wave abc correction may have ended at last week’s $1.0787 high. If so, the late-May low at $1.0636 should eventually be slipped through.
Immediate support can be found at last Monday’s $1.0723 high and further support at last week’s $1.0668 low.
Key resistance is entrenched at the current June $1.0779 to $1.0787 highs.
EUR/JPY is range bound with a bullish bias
EUR/JPY has so far managed to rise to Friday’s ¥150.44 high ahead of this week’s ECB and Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meetings.
The ECB is expected to hike its rates by 25 basis points (bps) in June and to continue to do so in July whereas the BoJ is anticipated to pursue its ultra-loose monetary policy stance at -0.1% for its cash rate.
A rise above Friday’s ¥150.44 high would point towards a resumption of the currency pair’s uptrend despite the Eurozone having last week entered a recession.
The May-to-June resistance line at ¥150.78 represents the next upside target. If overcome, the early- and late-May highs at ¥151.07 to ¥151.61 should be in focus. This medium-term bullish forecast will remain valid as long as the current June lows at ¥148.64 to ¥148.60 hold on a daily chart closing basis.
USD/JPY consolidates below its seven-month high
USD/JPY continues to be range bound despite producer prices in Japan rising to 5.1% year-on-year in May, slowing for the fifth straight month to its lowest level in nearly two years.
The key technical areas to look out for are the past couple of week’s lows at ¥138.77 to ¥138.44 and highs at ¥140.24 to ¥140.45.
The break out of the recent sideways trading range will likely determine the medium-term trend. A rise above ¥140.45 would push the cross’ seven-month high at ¥140.93 to the fore, whereas a slip through ¥138.44 would target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥137.26.
As long as the current June low at ¥138.44 underpins, further upside looks more likely than a top being formed.
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