Early morning call: European futures are set to open higher

Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI analysis

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, from 50.7 in November, marking the fastest expansion in four months. This data contrasted with the NBS PMI data released earlier this weekend. The index shrank for a third straight month, falling to 49 in December from 49.4 the previous month, and weakening more than expected, and raising the case for fresh stimulus measures in the new year.

The lowdown on US jobs data

It’s a big week for US jobs data this week. On Wednesday, JOLTs job openings are expected to have marginally increased in November from the prior month, by around 120,000 to 8.85 million. October was the lowest level since March 2021.

The ADP survey, usually on a Wednesday, will be released on Thursday because of the extended weekend. US private businesses are expected to have hired 113,000 workers in December, after 103,000 job creations the previous month. That was a relatively weak figure considering it took into account the return of about 30,000 workers in the automotive sector after the end of the UAW strikes.

Also on Thursday, initial jobless claims. The number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits is forecast at 215,000. On the whole, the market doesn't expect any big changes. Weakness in the job sector remains, fuelling the opinion of a Fed rate cut in the first half of this year.

But the real indicator the Fed members are waiting for will be Friday's non-farm payrolls. 163,000 job creations expected in December. The unemployment rate should rise to 3.8%, from 3.7% in November. As for average hourly earnings, they should rise by 0.3% MoM and 3.9% YoY. That last figure would be at its lowest since mid-2021.

Dutch government partially revokes chip-making equipment export license to China

Dutch chip machine manufacturer ASML says the Dutch government has partially revoked an export license for the shipment of some chip-making equipment to China, following US export restrictions. The shipments include certain lithography systems. which use lasers to help create chip circuitry, a market which is dominated by ASML. The company said it does not expect the revocation or the latest US export control restrictions to have a material impact on its financial outlook for 2023.

Christmas trading statements due next week

Very little on the corporate front this week. Here in the UK, Next Q4 trading statement will be the only report of importance. A lot more Christmas trading statements are due next week, among them the ones of Sainsbury's, Tesco, M&S, and JD Sports Fashion.

Walgreens Boots Alliance is due to report its fiscal first quarter earnings on Thursday. The street anticipates earnings of 63 cents per share. That would be 4 cents lower than three months ago, and a decline of about 45% on the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to rise by 4.5% to $34.88 billion. On Friday, Constellation Brands Q3 earnings should come at $3.02 per share and revenue at $2.54 billion. US earnings season will officially start at the end of next week.