Geopolitics triggers a risk-off mood
On Sunday, analysts anticipated that oil would trade higher today after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend.
Asia-Pacific markets
Asia-Pacific markets slipped as traders weighed the impact of Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel over the weekend and turned to safe haven assets. The USD index stayed firm, having already posted its biggest weekly gains since 2022. Meanwhile, the price of gold was up 0.55%, trading around $2,358 after spiking on Friday and hitting $2,431.
Oil prices
Oil prices traded lower as traders dialled back risk premiums. On Sunday, analysts anticipated that oil would trade higher today after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Concern over a response from Iran to the strike on its embassy compound in Damascus supported oil last week and helped send Brent crude on Friday over $92 a barrel, the highest since October, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose to $85 a barrel.
US retail sales
Will today's US retail sales data confirm the Fed's reluctance to cut rates in June? Headline retail sales are expected to rise +0.3% month-over-month (MoM) in March, down from a +0.6% reading in February. Early Easter weekend is likely to have brought in some spending from April into March, and economists are thinking that continued wage growth, tax refunds, and easing rent inflation should help support more general consumer momentum. All this is likely to support the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won't start cutting rates until late summer, at the earliest.
The People's Bank of China
In China, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) left the one-year medium-term loan facility rate unchanged at 2.50%. The Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) rate serves as a guide to loan prime rates. The decision on these is due next Monday.
The US Q1 reporting season
Following on from a mixed start to the US Q1 reporting season last Friday, today is the turn of Goldman Sachs to publish its quarterly earnings. Consensus estimates sourced from Refinitiv forecast Q1 2024 earnings per share of $8.72 and revenue at $12.88 billion. Net interest income is one of the metrics under investors' scrutiny. On Friday, JP Morgan lost 6.5% as its net interest income outlook missed expectations.
The US earnings season
The US earnings season is now well underway. Tomorrow, the markets await reports from UnitedHealth, Bank of America, and Johnson & Johnson. They will be followed on Wednesday by Alcoa and Abbott Laboratories, Netflix on Thursday, and Schlumberger, American Express, and Procter & Gamble on Friday.
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