Gold at a record high

Gold

Gold continues to push above the $2000 level, reaching $2,147 per ounce on Monday. The surge has been thanks to the downtrend in the USD and geopolitical uncertainty, with investors turning to the widely considered safe-haven asset. Gold is also being fuelled by expectations that the US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further, and the markets have priced in a potential interest rate cut as early as March. Meanwhile, silver is following a similar trajectory, also continuing to climb higher, back to a level not seen since May this year, above 2000 again.

German trade surplus

In Germany, the trade surplus widened to €17.8 billion in October as imports fell by 1.2% month-over-month (MoM), more than exports. Over in the US, factory orders are forecast to fall by 2.6% in October compared to the previous month. Ex-transportation, the index is seen rising by 0.3%.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

US employment takes centre stage this week, with a set of indicators that could give us more clues on what the Federal Reserve will do next. According to economic forecasts, all these are likely to reveal more softness in the labour market. On Tuesday, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) job openings were forecast to fall to 9.35 million in October. On Wednesday, the automatic data processing (ADP) survey should show that 128,000 jobs have been created in the private sector in November. It is higher than the 113,000 recorded in October, but would be the third weakest month of 2023.

And on Friday, non-farm payrolls. Economists anticipate 180,000 job creations in November. That is 30,000 more than in October, but 30,000 is also the number of workers that have returned to work after the UAW strikes. A soft job report would reinforce the message that the Fed's work is done. Any number above these expectations is likely to give a boost to the US dollar.

Reserve Bank of Australia

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia should keep its cash rate at 4.35%. Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked by 25 basis points, the 13th rise since May 2022. The comments accompanying the decision will all be important. The minutes published a couple of weeks ago revealed that RBA staff still expect an additional one or two increases over the coming quarters. The Bank of Canada should keep its overnight rate at 5%, leaving borrowing costs at a 22-year high. The Bank of China (BOC) has always said that it remains wary of inflationary risks and would not hesitate to move the rate higher. But there is very little risk at the moment. Headline consumer price index (CPI) came in at 3.1% in October.

Ryanair

Ryanair traffic rose 4% in November to 11.7 million passengers. The load factor reached 92%. The low-cost airline said it had to cancel 960 flights last month due to the Israel conflict. It operated 66,400 flights. Petrofac is in discussions over the sale of its non-core assets and the fact that it will no longer be able to meet its full-year guidance. Last week, shares in London-listed Petrofac dropped to a record low as analysts flagged concerns over its balance sheet due to payment delays.

Bitcoin

In the cryptocurrency world, Bitcoin is gaining momentum. November was a second straight month of gains, as Bitcoin benefited from the rising prospects of US Fed rate cuts next year. Traders also anticipate the imminent approval of US stock market-traded bitcoin funds.