Look Ahead 13/10/23: China CPI; JPMorgan Chase; Citigroup; Wells Fargo; United Health
The Q3 earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and UnitedHealth reporting, as investors grapple with Middle East tensions, US rates uncertainty and waning US consumer consumption.
(Video Transcript)
US consumer sentiment report eagerly awaited
Hello, I'm Angeline Ong and welcome to your special Look Ahead to Friday 13 October 2023. And we start in China, where we have the consumer price index (CPI) data, producer price data as well, and trade balance numbers.
In the US, we've got the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and also the Baker Hughes oil rig count. The MCSI will be very interesting for three reasons. One, we're coming up to the US shopping season, and also we have the producer price index (PPI) and CPI numbers that were slightly hotter than expected.
And don't forget, investors having one eye on what happens in the Middle East, as it can affect oil prices. And of course, we're waiting to see if the tensions there continue or if they then spread further to oil-producing nations.
Strong uptick for USD after CPI
Looking at the dollar index for you, I just want to quickly show you the reaction that we've had earlier today in terms of the CPI number. It's been quite a remarkable session.
As you can see here, a strong uptick there after the CPI number, potentially because the slightly hotter PPI and CPI number might mean the Fed will leave the door open to an expected another rate hike before the end of this year, or certainly if they don't do anything, it might mean that they keep rates higher for longer.
Also, it's a huge session for earnings, starting with JPMorgan Chase, which is an all-session stock on the IG platform. It's out with third-quarter earnings. The picture has changed for JPMorgan over the last three months. It's showing you the daily chart here because Q2 shows that banks had benefited from higher interest rates.
How JPMorgan’s coped with worsening economy
And in the third quarter, they then had to manage a deterioration of the economic environment with slower loan growth and consumer spending. JPMorgan is the perfect illustration of this. Year-on-year, JPMorgan Chase is expected to say it had a rise in earnings and revenues, but sequentially it translates into a decline of both top and bottom line.
Year-on-year, the rise can be explained with the difference in interest rates. Quarter-on-quarter, a fall can be interpreted as another proof of a worsening economic picture. Refinitiv's mean analyst estimate for JPMorgan Chase is for earnings of 390 a share.
CitiGroup, Wells Fargo out with earnings
Moving on to Citigroup, because it too is out with earnings and also an all-session stock on the IG platform. Citigroup will set a very different tone. Earnings seem falling year-on-year due to a rise in operating costs linked to the major restructuring it's just gone through. Expenses will be particularly under investor scrutiny.
And not forgetting Wells Fargo, because it's also another all-session stock on the IG platform. EPS forecast at $1.24, revenues at $20.1 billion. Both top and bottom line are set to be or expected to be higher than the same quarter last year.
As the biggest mortgage lender in the US, Wells Fargo, unlike its peers, is more exposed to consumer patterns than any other lender. Investors are therefore keen to see how the bank envisages the coming months.
UnitedHealth going strong
And UnitedHealth, just want to check on that for you because it is one of the big names that is not a bank, also all-sessions on the IG platform. It's out with third-quarter earnings and it's due to come out with earnings before the market opens.
Sales are seen rising substantially compared to last year to $91.4 billion, benefiting from its efforts to diversify its portfolio. Recently, UnitedHealth executives raised the full-year earnings guidance as they expect an increase in activity in the coming months.
US strikes move from automakers to medics
Broadly speaking, we're also checking out any comments on strike action because, as you know, the strikes in the US have gone from the automakers to the medics. And this could potentially be a boon for UnitedHealth if it can cover those gaps.
And that's it for now. For more market-moving news, I'll be back on Beat the Street at 1.30pm London time to give you a heads-up to the Wall Street Open. And IG's Jeremy Naylor will be doing the same for Europe at 7.30am on early morning call.
Until then, you can find me on @AngelineOng on Twitter and at IG.com. This is IGTV.
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