Look Ahead 17/8/23: Japan trade balance; US and Australian jobless data; Walmart

(Video Transcript)

A volatile time for USD/JPY

Hello there, a very warm welcome to you and this is your special Look Ahead to Thursday, 17 August 2023.

First up, Japan, where we have trade balance figures. This will be important for this key cross here that we've been seeing huge amounts of volatility, the US dollar versus the JPY.

The other interesting thing about this cross as well is that many market watchers are waiting on the authorities there to perhaps step in and bolster the yen because it is floundering inside a key intervention zone that has kept many traders on guard.

Visitors to Japan on the increase

If you remember, Japan stepped in when the yen weakened to 145.92 back in September. Now the other interesting thing about Japan is that its visitor numbers are rising to a new post-pandemic high, in fact, at 2.3 million in July, which is interesting in itself because it was one of the last few countries to really open up to tourists.

Now to Australia, where we have the jobless rate figures, expectations there for July, 3.6%.

In the US, we get initial jobless claims, expectations are for 240,000. Also pay attention to that manufacturing figure out of Philadelphia's Fed. The most important one, perhaps, that could move markets is Walmart because, as you know, it's a huge week for retail.

US grappling with high inflation

We've already heard from Target saying that second quarter adjusted profit came in at $1.80, beating the street, might I add. However, Target did cut its sales and profit projections and forecasts for the rest of this year, signaling that perhaps Americans are still grappling with high inflation.

Just having a look at Walmart shares here for you, they have ground higher if you look from December and January onwards. However, as you can see here, we are seeing it hit a resistance point at around $16,200. Part of this, perhaps, could be the fact that inflation isn't coming down as fast as the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) or US consumers had hoped.