Look ahead 30/11/23: China PMI; US Core PCE; German retail sales; OPEC+; Dell
Ahead of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech, investors get a raft of data including the latest US core PCE price index and China manufacturing and services print. Oil could be volatile in the run up to the OPEC+ meeting.
(Partial Video Transcript)
USD/JPY cross is key, alongside new data
Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to your look ahead to Thursday 30 November 2023.
We start in Japan, where we have both retail sales figures and also industrial output. What will be key is what happens with the dollar versus the yen.
Looking at this cross here, we have seen the dollar versus the yen rebound from new multi-month lows at around 1.4668, hitting 1.4782 or thereabouts,.
It then came back down again, sparked by comments from a Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member, BoJ's adoptee, who is considered among the board members with a dovish stance, said it was still premature to debate an exit from negative interest rates.
But don't forget, every cross, that's why it's called a cross, does have two sides to the story. And also, the US dollar has been weakened recently due to these expectations that we could see an interest rate cut as soon as March.
China's manufacturing and services PMI due
We've also got numbers out of China. This is the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), quite key, given it's a pretty quiet week, and we haven't yet heard from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell later in the week, so this might be an impetus for the markets to get going, especially if we get a better-than-expected number.
From Germany, watch out for retail sales. That will be key in terms of an indication as to what consumption is doing over there. It has been quite weak recently. Unemployment rate there has been quite low, it has to be said.
The euro, briefly crossing 1.10 for the first time since August on Tuesday, this is against the dollar, but then paired gains and is now trading at around 10.987, so quite a change there. Some data from Germany show that price growth slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in November, from 3% in October.
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