Oil prices fall further ahead of the delayed OPEC+ meeting

European equities

European equities opened lower on Monday following a negative session overnight in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. In China, industrial profits declined by 7.8% in the first ten months of 2023, slowing from a 9% decline in January–September. Over in the US this afternoon, sales are forecast to fall by 4% in October month-over-month (MoM) after a 12.3% rebound in September, which took them to their highest since February 2022.

US Q3 GDP

More statistics are expected throughout the week. On Wednesday, the 2nd estimate of the US Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate should come at 4.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), and on Thursday, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to rise 3.5% in November year-over-year (YoY). In Germany, the market particularly awaits a couple of indicators. On Tuesday, Gfk consumer confidence is forecast to rise to -26, and on Wednesday, the consumer price index in Europe's largest economy should come at 3.7% in November YoY. Finally, in China, purchasing manager indices are anticipated to show a small improvement.

NBS manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is seen rising to 49.9 in November from 49.5 the previous month, while Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to show a small improvement. NBS manufacturing PMI is seen rising to 49.9 in November from 49.5 the previous month, while Caixin manufacturing PM is expected to rise to 50.2 from 49.5 in October.

UK technology and retail sector

On the corporate front, today will be a very quiet day; more to come later this week in the UK with Topps Tiles, EasyJet on Tuesday, Halfords on Wednesday, followed by Mulberry and Doc Martens on Thursday. And in the US, investors await quarterly reports in the technology and retail sectors. On Tuesday, the street expects earnings from HPE and Dollar Tree; on Wednesday, Snowflake and Foot Locker; and Dell and Salesforce on Thursday.

Dollar tree

Dollar Tree stock has had a difficult quarter. The August-September drop was mainly a reaction to the group's last set of results. Gross margin fell 220 basis points to 29.2% in the second quarter, reflecting lower markups.

Dell Technologies

Dell Technologies stock rose by more than 30% in the last three months, a rally triggered by better-than-expected earnings, revenue, and forecasts in its last quarterly report. Analysts see Dell benefiting from booming demand for artificial intelligence servers. Following Dell's last set of numbers, Morgan Stanley said the group was "emerging as an early Gen-A winner." Investors will want to see further proof of that on Thursday.

US retail sales

US shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online, according to Adobe Analytics, a welcome boost for US retailers but unlikely to change the gloomy forecast for the holiday season. According to Mastercard Spending Pulse, US retail sales on Black Friday rose 2.5% year-over-year. Early in September, the indicator, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, anticipated US retail sales to grow 3.7% during the holiday season, running from November 1 through December 24.

OPEC+

It seems OPEC+ has moved closer to a compromise with African oil producers, according to Reuters. Disagreements emerged between the organisation's members on 2024 output levels, which forced the group to postpone its meeting from November 26 to November 30. Several analysts have said they expect OPEC+ to extend or even deepen oil supply cuts into next year in order to support prices. The market is also waiting to see if Saudi Arabia extends its additional 1 Arabia extends its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.