OPEC sees higher oil demand for the next two years

Australian employment

After two months of surprisingly strong growth, Australian employment fell sharply in December. Net employment dropped to 65,100. It was the first drop in employment in three months, as full-time employment tumbled by 106,600 while part-time employment rose by 41,400. The jobless rate was unchanged at 3.9% from November, holding at the highest reading since May 2022.

The Fed manufacturing index

Over in the US, the market awaits building permits and housing starts for December, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and initial jobless claims.

Sage Group

Currys expects adjusted pretax profit between £105 million and $115 million, ahead of consensus, after saying group like-for-like sales fell 4% in H1. Dunelm Group Q2 total sales increased 1% to £483 million and sees finacial year (FY) pretax profit in line with expectations. Sage Group reiterates its guidance after posting a 10% rise in total revenue for Q1.

Alcoa

Alcoa fell 5.5% late on Wednesday for all sessions on the IG platform. It reported a quarterly adjusted loss of 56 cents per share for its fourth quarter. That was higher than the same quarter last year, when the company reported a loss per share of 70 cents, and better than analysts' expectations of -81 cents per share. Revenue fell 2.6% to $2.60 billion from a year ago, in line with the forecast.

BHP Group

BHP Group released its production report for the last three months of 2023. Iron ore production fell by 2.2% to 72.7 million metric tonnes. That is in line with analyst forecasts. Copper production fell 4% to 457,000 metric tons. BHP Group also said it was reassessing the value of its nickel operations. Nickel prices fell 40% last year as Indonesian supply jumped, causing restructures and writedowns at nickel mines across Australia. BHP will provide more details at its half-year results on February 20.

OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said 2025 will see a robust increase in oil use led by China and the Middle East. A surprise announcement as OPEC was expected to give its 2025 forecast in July. This view contrasts with the ones of other bodies.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, predicts oil demand will peak by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy. IEA executive director Fatih Birol told Reuters he expected a comfortable, more balanced oil market. The IEA expects a significant increase in oil output from the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana this year, just as global demand growth slows.