RBA April Minutes preview and next moves for AUD/USD

Key dates

Minutes for the RBA’s April Board Meeting will be released on Tuesday 11.30am AEST.

RBA minutes preview

The RBA's decision to pause its rate hiking cycle and leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60% followed a cumulative increase in interest rates by 3 ½ percentage points since May last year, ending a run of ten consecutive rate rises.

“The Board took the decision to hold interest rates steady this month to provide additional time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.”

In the statement that accompanied the decision, the RBA noted that in assessing when and how much further interest rates needed to increase, the Board would pay close attention to “developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.”

In an address to the National Press Club the following day, the RBA Governor noted that a pause does not mean an end to rate rises and that further tightening of monetary policy “may well be needed to return inflation to target.”

The Board meeting minutes would be expected to reiterate these comments. They will be closely scrutinised for any signal on the timing or metrics that would prompt the RBA to act on its tightening bias and resume its rate-hiking cycle.

AUD/USD

Currently, the US interest rate market is 78% priced for a 25bp rate hike in May which would take the Fed Funds rate into a range of 5.00% to 5.25%.

The Australian interest rate market sees the RBA’s cash rate staying on hold at 3.60% until October before a possible rate cut in early 2024.

A Feds Fund rate of 5.00% to 5.25% verse an RBA cash rate of 3.60% will continue to weigh on the AUD/USD from an interest rate differentials perspective.

Technical analysis

The AUD/USD closed higher last week at .6710 (+0.62%), supported by robust Australian employment and China trade data.

The pair was on track for a much better week before the release of firmer than expected University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations jolted hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, which promoted a round of violent US dollar short covering into the weekend.

If the AUD/USD can regather this week and see a sustained break above resistance at .6800c, there is the potential for the rally to extend towards .70c. However, until then, allow for more range trading between .6800c and .6600/.6580c with downside risks to .65c

AUD/USD daily chart

1. TradingView: the figures stated are as of April 17th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.