Stocks weighed by hotter US inflation
Global stocks pared gains after that hotter-than-expected US inflation reading for February. IGTV financial analyst, Angeline Ong, looks at the market reaction and Fed rate cut timing expectations.
(AI Video Summary)
Higher-than-anticipated February inflation data causes scaling back of June Fed rate cut expectations
Global stocks are facing a loss in profits after the release of inflation data for February that was higher than expected. This has led to a decrease in hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June. As a result, the price of spot gold has dropped, while the value of the US dollar remains strong. Additionally, yields on US 10-year Treasury notes have slightly increased. However, the situation is not completely straightforward.
Although there has been a setback, investors are still counting on the Federal Reserve to implement at least three rate cuts this year. However, the upcoming election may make it challenging for the Fed to carry out these cuts within their desired timeframe. This means that the opportunity for the Fed to act is shrinking, which could potentially change investors' expectations about rate cuts.
The inflation data suggests that the Federal Reserve may reconsider its plan to lower interest rates in June. This hesitation is a response to the greater-than-expected increase in inflation. As a result, we can see a decline in the price of spot gold, as investors adjust their strategies and perhaps move away from safe-haven assets.
Investors still expect rate cuts throughout the year
It is also important to note the impact on the US dollar, as it has remained strong in response to the inflation data. This could be due to the belief that the Federal Reserve may delay or reduce the number of rate cuts, making the US dollar relatively stronger compared to other currencies.
Furthermore, the rise in yields on 10-year Treasury notes indicates that there is less demand for these bonds. This may be because the market is adjusting its expectations of future interest rates. Investors may see the potential decrease in rate cuts as a sign of improving economic conditions, leading them to seek higher returns in other areas.
To summarise, the higher-than-anticipated inflation data for February has resulted in a scaling back of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. This has caused a drop in the price of spot gold, a strong dollar, and a slight increase in yields on 10-year Treasury notes. However, investors still expect rate cuts throughout the year, although the upcoming election may limit the Fed's ability to carry them out.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
Start trading forex today
Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.
- Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
- Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
- Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
