US CPI in sight; dollar steady

US CPI

US consumer price index data will dominate Tuesday as investors await the latest set of price figures for the US economy to assess its impact on the Fed's moves in the coming meetings. The figures, due out at 12.30 p.m., are expected to rise 0.3% in February month-on-month and 3.1% year-over-year. Core consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to rise 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.9% year-over-year (YoY), compared to 0.3% and 3.7% the previous month.

The UK unemployment rate

The UK unemployment rate rose for the first time in six months. It came in at 3.9% in January after 3.8% in December. Economists expected the rate to stay unchanged. Average earnings, excluding bonus growth, decelerated to 6.1% from 6.2% the previous month.

NAB business confidence index

In Australia, the National Australia Bank (NAB) business confidence dipped 1 point to 0, with the retail sector a major drag as high mortgage rates and past inflation still weigh on incomes. Meanwhile, business conditions rose back above their long-term average, up 3 points to 10.

The Bank of Japan

After several days of strengthening, the yen stabilized against the dollar in the wake of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor comments. For Kazuo Ueda, the economy is recovering but also showing some signs of weakness, particularly on the consumption side. The comments come ahead of the BOJ policy meeting next week, where the board will debate whether the outlook is bright enough to phase out its massive monetary stimulus. Many market players still expect the BOJ to end its negative interest rate policy by April.

The Federal Reserve

A majority of economists polled by Reuters between March 5 and 11 expect the first Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut to come in June. All 108 economists polled predict the Fed funds rate to stay in a 5.25%–5.50% range next week, but a two-thirds majority, 72 of them, see a first rate cut in June, compared to just over half on the previous poll in February.

Persimmon

Elsewhere on the equity market, Persimmon posted a pre-tax profit of £351.8 million for the full year, down 52% and missing expectations of £359.5 million. Revenue beat expectations: it reached £2.77 billion, compared to a forecast of £2.6 billion. Persimmon says its performance so far this year is in line with expectations, but the near-term outlook remains uncertain.

Oracle

Oracle shares rose 16% in extended trading, adding more than $40 billion to their stock market value. Earnings and sales were broadly in line with expectations. Earnings rose 16% to $1.41 per share, 3 cents higher than anticipated. Revenue reached $13.28 billion. Oracle sees revenue growth forecast in the range of 4%–6%, below analysts' average estimate of about 6.5%. But the market got excited during Oracle's conference call at the mention of one name, repeated several times: NVIDIA.

Oracle executives said a joint announcement will be made in the coming week. Oracle kept on winning business during the quarter. Remaining performance obligations, the most popular measure of booked revenue, were up 29% compared with a year earlier. Despite opening new and expanding existing cloud data centers, demand for Oracle's Gen2 AI infrastructure still substantially exceeds supply.