Week Ahead: US CPI; UK retail sales; German ZEW; Gap; Vodafone

(Partial Video Transcript)

US CPI, Japan PPI and UK jobless rate due

Hello and welcome to IGTV. This is your special look ahead to the week starting 13 November 2023. And what a busy week it is. Of course, we've got that consumer price index (CPI) number out of the US, which will be the centerpiece, especially after Powell's comments and that hawkish message.

However, we also have the producer price index (PPI) reading out of Japan. Then on Tuesday, watch out for the consumer confidence number and the business confidence that reading is out of Australia, along with the unemployment rate in the UK.

Also, Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) figures. This, of course, is the second estimate out of the Euro Zone, so not as key, but it comes at a time when we've just got numbers out of the UK showing that it's managed to just about sidestep a recession this year.

Black Friday looms on the horizon

Germany also unleashes its ZEW economic sentiment, which could move the euro. And we've got API crude oil inventories as well ahead of that OPEC outlook meeting later this month. Then midweek, we've got GDP growth rate numbers out of Japan. This is a Q3 reading, as well as industrial production and retail sales number out of China.

Now, don't forget, we are counting down to Black Friday now, and especially single day as well, which is now one of the biggest shopping events in the world. From the UK, consumer price index figures could give sterling some volatility. And we've got producer price, retail sales and EIA crude oil inventories out of the US.

And on Thursday, the unemployment rate in Australia will be quite interesting for those of our clients that trade the Aussie. And we've got important export prices out of the US, along with initial jobless claims, industrial production, and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index.

Let's check in on Friday as well. Retail sales out of the UK and housing data out of the US. Baker Hughes oil rig count, that too, will give us some indication of where the supply side for oil is headed.

Data creates heightened, short-term volatility

Now, let's cross over to Tom now in Chicago. Tom, of course, coming from KC Live, part of IG Group. Thank you so much for joining us so early in the session. I guess the key thing in the US is the CPI figure. But of course, like most things, volatility is the thing that leads the way for KC Live. What are you watching?

TS: I mean, we get excited about numbers like, you know, economic numbers like CPI or PPI or unemployment, but not because we really care about the numbers. We get excited about the numbers because they create, you know, heightened volatility on a short-term basis.

And heightened volatility creates opportunity. So numbers to us are exciting only because they create uncertainty, they create a little bit of fear. And that means the markets, you know, they perk up. And prices get a little more expensive, so they become more interesting to us. So anything that creates a binary, you know, event or a binary happening, which means this is this one off thing, that gets us as traders, you know, a little, little hyped up.

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