Where to next for the gold price?
Fundamental analysis of the drivers behind the gold rally and technical analysis regarding future gold price targets.
Gold price hits record high for fourth straight day
Users of trading platforms have seen the spot gold price surge by over 18% year-to-date, comfortably beating global US major stock indices.
Gold versus stock indices year-to-date performance chart
The precious metal remains in a strong uptrend and is on track for its fifth consecutive week of gains and fourth straight day of hitting record highs.
Gold surged to a new all-time high of around $3,149.00 per ounce on Tuesday, as investors sought refuge in the safe-haven asset ahead of President Donald Trump’s impending tariff rollout, which has intensified concerns about a global trade war.
Trump announced that the reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect Wednesday, will target all countries—not just a limited group of 10 to 15. Additional tariffs on automobiles are expected Thursday.
Global safe haven demand driving prices
Commodity trading participants should note that the rally in the gold price has also been fuelled by several other factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts, continued central bank buying, and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs.
Global central banks have acquired more than 1,000 tons annually in recent years which reflects efforts to diversify reserves away from the US dollar.
Monday marked gold’s strongest quarterly performance since September 1986.
Meanwhile, investors are keeping a close eye on key labour market indicators: Tuesday’s job openings data, Wednesday’s ADP employment report, and Friday’s non-farm payrolls, for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next moves on interest rates.
Fundamental support factors
Declining US Treasury yields have put pressure on the dollar, providing a boost to the ongoing gold price rally.
Rising geopolitical tensions - particularly the US's tariff threats - have further strengthened gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, especially amid growing concerns about a potential resurgence in inflation.
Share dealing investors are also observing a disconnect between ETF holdings and gold prices, which could indicate the potential for increased buying activity.
Furthermore, strong physical demand from India and China remains a key factor supporting upward momentum in gold prices.
Risk factors to consider
A stronger US dollar could challenge gold's upward momentum. Given that the US dollar basket depreciated by over 4% in the last quarter this scenario currently looks unlikely, though.
Successful Ukraine-Russia peace talks might cause temporary weakness. However, with US President Trump expressing his frustration over stalled negotiations, particularly after Russian President Vladimir Putin questioned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's legitimacy as a negotiator, and Trump threatening to impose significant tariffs on purchasers of Russian oil if cooperation on peace efforts does not improve, the situation is far from resolved.
Interest rate decisions from major central banks remain crucial for price direction. At present fears of stagflation occurring amid a possible US-provoked global trade war point towards lower rather than higher rates and yields.
Technical outlook and price targets
With online trading participants seeing the gold price trade well above the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the September 2022-to-May 2023 advance, projected higher from the October 2023 low, at $2,995.85 per troy ounce as well as the psychological $3,000.00 mark, the question is where to next for the precious metal price?
Spot gold quarterly chart
The 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the January 1999-to-July 2011 advance, projected higher from the October 2015 low, at $3,755.00 per troy ounce represents the next technical upside target.
In an extended bull market scenario, the $4,000.00 mark may also be reached.
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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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