Will Apple shares reach record highs before 2024 ends?
Apple's historical seasonality patterns suggest strong year-end performance potential, but macroeconomic challenges and market dynamics could impact its trajectory to new highs.
Understanding Apple's seasonality patterns
Apple's stock has historically demonstrated robust performance during the final quarter (Q4), with data spanning two decades showing consistent strength from October through December.
The seasonality pattern reveals average gains around 35% by year-end, highlighting the significance of Q4 performance in Apple's annual trading cycle.
This seasonal strength typically coincides with major product launches and the crucial holiday shopping period, when consumer electronics sales traditionally peak.
Historical data suggests Apple benefits from both retail investor optimism and institutional portfolio rebalancing during these months.
Current market dynamics affecting Apple
The tech sector has faced significant headwinds in 2024, with rising interest rates and inflation concerns impacting growth stock valuations. However, the sector has still made impressive gains, climbing the ‘wall of worry’ to record a 25% rally for the year so far (as of the close on 22nd November).
Apple's position as a market leader makes it particularly sensitive to broader economic indicators and trading signals.
Recent product launches, including the iPhone 15 series and Vision Pro, could provide catalysts for share price appreciation, though supply chain constraints remain a concern.
Market sentiment toward tech stocks has shown signs of improvement, potentially supporting Apple's momentum into year-end.
Technical analysis and price targets
The current technical setup shows Apple trading near key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for further upside.
Volume patterns indicate strong institutional support, particularly during market pullbacks. Trading alerts can help monitor these movements.
Price action remains above major moving averages, maintaining the long-term uptrend despite recent volatility.
Chart patterns suggest consolidation near previous highs could serve as a springboard for new records if market conditions remain favourable.
Apple’s stock has recovered from the lows of August, though it has yet to recoup all the losses suffered during that summer pullback. However, dips in September and then in November were met with fresh buying pressure, supporting the rally.
The current target remains the $237.00 area, which marked resistance in July and in late October.
A close back below the November low of $220.00 could signal that some short-term weakness is ahead.
Apple stock price chart
Key catalysts and risks
Holiday season sales performance will be crucial, with analysts closely monitoring consumer spending patterns amid economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting supply chains and key markets like China, pose significant risks to Apple's growth trajectory.
The company's services segment continues to show strong growth, providing a more stable revenue stream alongside hardware sales.
Innovation in artifical intelligence (AI) and augmented reality could drive investor enthusiasm, though competition in these areas remains intense.
How to trade Apple shares
- Research Apple's fundamentals and technical indicators thoroughly
- Choose whether you want to trade or invest
- Open an account with IG
- Search for Apple shares in our platform
- Place your trade
Consider starting with a demo account to practice trading strategies without risk.
Regular monitoring of market conditions and company developments is essential for successful trading outcomes.
Remember to implement appropriate risk management strategies, particularly when trading volatile tech stocks.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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