Gold price hits new all-time high in euros and pounds, where to next?
As the gold price hits new highs in euros and pounds sterling, we adjust our year-end and 2025 gold in US dollar outlook.
Gold price aims for all-time high around the $2,800.00 mark
The strong gold bull market of the past two years, up nearly 70% from its September 2022 low to its October record $2,790.07 per troy ounce high, seems to have resumed amid safe haven inflows.
Heightened geo-political tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the fear of an escalating conflict in Europe have driven the precious metal price higher, by over 5% within a week. Dismal UK and European purchasing managers indices (PMIs) added fuel to the fire. The gold price is on track for its fifth straight day of gains, having so far risen to the $2,700.00 mark, with the October all-time high at $2,790.00 back on the plate.
Versus the euro and the British pound sterling, the gold price hit new record highs, close to the €2,600.00 mark and the £2,200.00 level.
Gold price in euros weekly chart
Despite this month’s significant near 9% drop in the gold price (in US dollars) to last week’s $2,536.86 low, and in doing so, fall through the $2604.82 October low, the swift ascent of the precious metal shows that the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Gold price weekly chart
The gold price will remain in a long-term uptrend as long as the current November low at $2,536.86 underpins on a weekly chart closing basis.
Revised year-end gold price target outlook
Given the last couple of weeks’ deep correction, our early November year-end target needs to be revised lower and now stands between the minor psychological $2,800.00 level and the $2,900.00 mark.
For our previous psychological $3,000.00 upside target to get hit will probably take longer and is now expected to occur later in quarter one (Q1) 2025 or perhaps only during the second quarter (Q2) of next year.
Technically speaking the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the September 2022-to-May 2023 advance, projected higher from the October 2023 low, at $2,999.46 ties in with our $3,000.00 medium-term upside target.
2025 gold forecast
Once the gold price trades in the $3,000.00 region, it will likely trade around this level for several months. The reason for this is that it represents a major psychological resistance level, it being a round number.
Global central banks, with China leading the charge, are expected to maintain their gold buying momentum, potentially pushing prices towards the key $3,000.00 level. This significant technical threshold could act as an important price target for the precious metal.
If buying pressure persists beyond $3,000.00, the next technical target lies at $3,113.00. This level is particularly noteworthy as it represents a key Fibonacci extension - specifically the 261.8% projection from gold's 1999 low through its September 2011 high, measured from the December 2015 low.
Looking further ahead into 2025, should the current bull market maintain its strength and push through these levels, traders and analysts may begin focusing on the psychologically significant $4,000.00 mark as the next major target.
These projections are based on technical analysis and existing buying patterns but remember that markets can be unpredictable and trading carries risk.
Gold price year end analysis
Given the speed of the recent over 5% rally in the gold price, the minor $2,731.64-to-$2,758.53 resistance zone is likely to be hit within days. It is where the 23 October high and 31 October lows can be found.
If overcome, the current record high at $2,790.07 and the $2,800.00 level would be back in the frame.
Spot gold daily chart
Minor support can be found around the September high at $2,685.64 and, further down, between the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,652.07 and the 7 November low at $2,643.36.
While the current November low at $2,536.86 underpins, the short-, medium- and long-term uptrends remain valid.
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