Gold price hits record high: when will $3,000 be reached?
Gold has surged 53% since October 2023, reaching a record $2,801. Here's what traders can expect for gold prices in 2025.
Gold price hits record high above $2,800.00 mark
The gold price has demonstrated remarkable strength, rallying over 50% from its October 2023 low to reach $2,801.00 per troy ounce on Thursday. It thereby beat the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones rallies in that time.
Gold futures versus US stock indices 1-year comparison chart
The gold bull market remains intact while prices stay above the 2024-to-2025 uptrend line at $2,655.00 and, more importantly, the November low at $2,537.00. Any retracements above this level could present buying opportunities.
A key support area is made up of the November-to-December lows at $2,596.00-to-$2,537.00.
Fundamental drivers
Central bank buying, particularly from China, continues to support precious metals. This institutional demand could persist until the gold price reaches $3,000.00.
Central banks worldwide have been augmenting their gold reserves to diversify assets and reduce reliance on the US dollar. Notably, countries like China have been significant purchasers, with central banks buying more than 1,000 tons of gold annually in recent years.
The market will also closely watch central bank policies, especially any shifts in interest rates.
The expectation of reduced interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) makes non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. Lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment.
Physical demand from key markets like India and China remains a crucial factor for price direction. Between 60-70% of India's gold demand comes from the jewellery sector, underscoring the metal's importance in adornment and as a status symbol.
Technical outlook for 2025
The psychological $3,000.00 mark represents a significant target, coinciding with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the September 2022-to-May 2023 advance, projected higher from the October 2023 low, at $2,999.46.
If the current pace of the rise in the gold price persists, this upside target may be reached before the end of the first quarter. Even if it were to slow down, the $3,000.00 region represents a possible price target for the second half of the year.
Spot gold daily weekly chart
Once reached, the $3,000.00 region may well act as major resistance area due to its psychological importance.
Further upside potential exists at $3,113.00, marking another crucial Fibonacci extension level from the 1999 low to September 2011 high.
In an extended bull market scenario, the $4,000.00 level becomes a possible longer-term target.
Risks to watch
A stronger US dollar could create headwinds for gold prices, as the two typically move inversely. Having said that, this hasn’t been the case of late.
Rising real yields could dampen enthusiasm for non-yielding assets like gold but this scenario looks highly unlikely in the current monetary loosening environment.
Any significant improvement in global economic conditions might reduce safe-haven demand.
Market sentiment could shift quickly based on geopolitical developments or central bank actions.
How to trade gold in 2025
- Research the gold market thoroughly
- Choose whether you want to trade or invest
- Open an account with us
- Search for gold in our platform
- Place your trade with appropriate risk management
Remember that while the long-term trend remains bullish, gold prices can experience significant volatility. Consider using appropriate position sizing and risk management strategies when trading this market.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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