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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Year-end and 2025 gold forecast: $3,000 and possibly beyond​

​​​By year-end the gold price is expected to trade in the $2,800.00 to $2,900.00 region and rise towards the $3,000.00 to $3,113.00 area in Q1 2025.​​

Gold trading Source: Adobe images

​​​Gold price aims for $3,000.00 mark

​The spot gold price has been in a strong bull market for the past two years, rising by nearly 70% from its September 2022 low to this week’s record $2,790.00 per troy ounce high, made close to the psychological $2,800.00 mark.

​Even if a significant retracement lower were to be seen, the gold price will remain in long-term uptrend as long as the 2024 uptrend line at $2,550.00 underpins. Any such potential retracement lower would thus represent a buying opportunity, provided that no fall through the $2,278.00 late April low were to occur.

​Spot gold price weekly chart

Spot gold price weekly chart Source: TradingView.com
Spot gold price weekly chart Source: TradingView.com

Support on the weekly chart can be spotted around the September peak at $2,685.00 and also at the early October $2,605.00 low.

​Year-end gold price target

​Upside targets above the minor psychological $2,800.00 level, between which and the $2,900.00 mark the gold price is expected to trade by year-end, come in around the psychological $3,000.00 mark. This level coincides with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the September 2022-to-May 2023 advance, projected higher from the October 2023 low, at $2,999.46. It is not expected to be reached before the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, though.

​2025 gold forecast

​The gold price is likely to trade around the $3,000.00 mark for several months as it represents a major psychological resistance levels as a round number for many investors.

​Physical gold purchases by several central banks, and especially by China, are likely to continue until this threshold is reached. Were these purchases of gold bullion to continue beyond the $3,000.00 technical level, then $3,113.00 could be reached as well. It represents the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 1999 low to the September 2011 high, projected upwards from the December 2015 low.

​In case of a continuation of the strong gold bull market occurring in 2025 and the above mentioned technical levels being surpassed, the next psychological $4,000.00 mark may also be considered as a possible upside target.

​Gold price year end analysis

​Thursday’s unexpected pullback from this week’s record high at $2,790.17 to $2,731.64, as some traders cashed in their profits ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) release and next week’s US presidential election, provided some investors with another buying opportunity at lower levels.

​Spot gold daily chart

Spot gold daily chart Source: TradingView.com
Spot gold daily chart Source: TradingView.com

​Below $2,731.64 lies the 23 October low at $2,708.76. As long as this level underpins, the medium-term uptrend will remain intact.

​Resistance above the 23 October high at $2,758.52 sits at this week’s all-time high at $2,790.17, a rise above which would engage the $2,800.00 mark and beyond.​​

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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