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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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South Africa 40 Cash Index price breakout confirms ahead of key data release

The SA40 Cash Index has broken resistance to suggest further gains, although the US rates decision and policy meeting are likely to be the catalysts for confirmation or failure thereof.

Source: Bloomberg
Forex United States dollar Federal Open Market Committee Pound sterling Federal Reserve South Africa
Written by: Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg
Publication date:
Source: IG Charts
Source: IG Charts

The South Africa 40 Cash Index, after finding support at the 200-day simple moving average (blue line) (200MA) and the 66400 level multiple times, has now started to rebound, and broken the 69240 level.

The black arrows mark the long lower wick candles and price rejection off the 66400 level. Yesterday’s (Tuesday 21 March) close above the 69240 level meets the breakout criteria previously guided for long entry. The suggestion now is that the short term move higher is now aligning with the longer-term uptrend still in play.

70700 becomes the initial upside resistance target from the move. A close above this level would suggest 72840 as a further upside resistance target. Traders who are long might consider using a close below the 68550 level as a stop loss indication for the trade.

Key data to look out for

Traders of the South Africa 40 Cash Index will however want to place close attention to upcoming data which does provide increased short-term risk to markets. Of particular importance will be the Federal Reserve Bank’s interest rate decision at 8pm on Wednesday the 22nd of March 2023. This will be closely followed by a press conference with Fed members at 8:30pm.

A calendar of upcoming events this week is as follows:

Date Time Region Event Forecast Previous

22 March 2023

8:00pm

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

22 March 2023

8:00pm

USD

FOMC Statement

22 March 2023

8:00pm

USD

Federal Funds Rate

5.00%

4.75%

22 March 2023

8:30pm

USD

FOMC Press Conference

23 March 2023

2:00pm

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

7-0-2

7-0-2

23 March 2023

2:00pm

GBP

Monetary Policy Summary

23 March 2023

2:00pm

GBP

Official Bank Rate

4.25%

4.00%

23 March 2023

2:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

198K

192K

24 March 2023

10:15am

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

52.4

53.1

24 March 2023

10:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

47.1

46.3

24 March 2023

10:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

51

50.9

24 March 2023

11:30am

GBP

Flash Manufacturing PMI

49.8

49.3

24 March 2023

11:30am

GBP

Flash Services PMI

53.1

53.5

24 March 2023

3:45pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

47

47.3

24 March 2023

3:45pm

USD

Flash Services PMI

50.3

50.6

IG client sentiment

Source: IG

As of 3:30pm on the 22nd of March 2023, most IG clients (63%) with open positions on the South Africa 40 Cash Index expect the price to fall in the near term, while 37% of IG clients with open positions on the index expect the price to rise in the near term.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading involves risk.

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