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South Africa 40 update and dividend reminder for Monday

The South Africa 40 Cash Index has produced a bearish reversal off the 67940-resistance level

Source: Bloomberg

South Africa 40 Cash Index

Source: IG charts
Source: IG charts

The South Africa 40 Cash Index has produced a bearish reversal off the 67940-resistance level and gone on to break (close) below support at 66900.

The reversal and downside support break suggest some further downside, with 65570 the initial support target. Traders who are short might consider using a close above the current intraday high at 67270 as a stop loss / failure indication.

Cash adjustment expected (Monday not Tuesday)

The South Africa 40 Cash Index is expected to adjust for a dividend in the underlying before market close on Monday the 18th of March for an estimated 75 points.

Key data releases this week (local & international)

Date

Time

Region

Event

Previous

18 March 2024

4:00am

CNY

Industrial Production y/y

6.8%

19 March 2024

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

19 March 2024

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

20 March 2024

9:00am

GBP

CPI y/y

4.0%

20 March 2024

8:00pm

USD

Federal Funds Rate

5.50%

20 March 2024

8:00pm

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

20 March 2024

8:00pm

USD

FOMC Statement

20 March 2024

8:30pm

USD

FOMC Press Conference

20 March 2024

10:00am

ZAR

Inflation Rate MoM

0.10%

20 March 2024

10:00am

ZAR

Inflation Rate YoY

5.30%

21 March 2024

10:15am

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

47.1

21 March 2024

10:15am

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

48.4

21 March 2024

10:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

42.5

21 March 2024

10:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

48.3

21 March 2024

11:30am

GBP

Flash Manufacturing PMI

47.5

21 March 2024

11:30am

GBP

Flash Services PMI

53.8

21 March 2024

2:00pm

GBP

Monetary Policy Summary

21 March 2024

2:00pm

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

2-1-6

21 March 2024

2:00pm

GBP

Official Bank Rate

5.25%

21 March 2024

2:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

209K

21 March 2024

3:45pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

52.2

21 March 2024

3:45pm

USD

Flash Services PMI

52.3

22 March 2024

9:00am

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

3.40%

South Africa 40 Cash Index (previous)

Source: IG charts
Source: IG charts

The South Africa 40 Cash Index traded roughly 500 points short of the downside support target from last week, before rallying back to close above the 66900-failure level.

Currently we see the index finding resistance at the 67940 level.

We do have a bearish intraday reversal forming off this level although not yet completed (with a lower close). A bearish reversal off resistance would be confirmed with a close back below the 66900-support level. In this scenario, the closing low at 65570 might provide the next downside support target, while a close back above the 67940 level might be used as a failure indication for the short trade suggestion.

Cash adjustment expected

The South Africa 40 Cash Index is expected to adjust for a dividend in the underlying before market close on Tuesday the 12th of March for an estimated 196.8 points.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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