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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

USD/ZAR price forecast: rand marginally weaker after local CPI inflation

The rand’s initial reaction to the CPI news was a slight depreciation, although the domestic currency trades well off yesterday's lows

Source: Bloomberg

Local CPI Key Takeaways:

  1. Consumer inflation in South Africa increased in January 2024, driven by rising prices for food, housing, utilities, transport, and miscellaneous goods and services.
  2. The annual consumer price inflation rate was 5.3% in January 2024, up from 5.1% in December 2023.
  3. The main contributors to the annual inflation rate were food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and utilities, miscellaneous goods and services, and transport.
  4. Food and non-alcoholic beverages saw a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and contributed 1.3 percentage points to the overall inflation rate.
  5. The inflation rate for goods was 6.6% in January 2024, while for services it was 4.0%, both showing an increase compared to December 2023.

In January 2024, South Africa faced a notable rise in consumer inflation. The inflationary pressure was largely attributed to the increased costs of essential commodities such as food, housing, utilities, transport, and miscellaneous goods and services. The annual consumer price inflation rate climbed to 5.3%, which was a slight but significant uptick from the 5.1% recorded in December 2023.

The rand’s initial reaction to the CPI news was a slight depreciation, although the domestic currency trades well off yesterdays lows, which correlates to a broader moves in the dollar.

USD/ZAR – technical view

Source: IG chart

The USD/ZAR continues to trade within a short-term range between levels 18.80 (support) and 19.15 (resistance).

The price has now formed a bullish reversal off the support of this range. Range traders who are long off the reversal might target a move towards the 19.15 level, while using a close below 18.80 as a stop loss consideration.

A tight stop level is considered in lieu of upcoming data in the form of the National Budget Speech and US FOMC meeting minutes.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Ltd and IG Markets South Africa Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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