Ahead of the game: 24 June 2024

US equity markets extended their gains this week ahead of the end of month. With six trading days left in June, the Nasdaq is up 6.56% month-to-date (MTD), on track for a seventh month of gains in eight. The S&P 500 cash is up 3.71% MTD, and the Dow Jones has added 448 points, or 1.16%.

The ASX 200 also gained this week, supported by demand for banks and consumer-facing stocks. At the halfway mark of 2024, the ASX 200 has gained only 2.35% this year, while the NASDAQ 100 has gained 17.39% in the same period.

• In the US, retail sales for May disappointed at 0.1% vs 0.3% expected, and prior months were revised lower
• US housing starts fell 5.5% to 1.277 million in May, the lowest since July 2020
• In the UK, headline inflation eased to 2% year-on-year (YoY) in May, the lowest since July 2021. Core inflation eased to 3.5% YoY from 3.9% prior
• The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold as expected at 5.25%
• In China, housing prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.9% YoY in May. It was the 11th consecutive month of decline despite Chinese authorities unveiling a real estate rescue package last month
• In Japan, inflation increased to 2.8% YoY in May from 2.5% prior
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold at 4.35%, as expected
• Crude oil gained 3.49% this week to $81.29 per barrel
• Gold gained 1.29% this week to $2362
• Wall Street's gauge of fear, the Volatility index (VIX), increased to 13.27 from 12.65 prior.
  

• NZ: Balance of Trade (Monday, 24 June at 8.45am AEST)
• AU: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Tuesday, 25 June at 10.30am AEST)
• AU: Monthly CPI (Wednesday, 26 June at 11.30am AEST)
• NZ: ANZ Business Confidence (Thursday, 27 June at 11.00am AEST)
• AU: Housing Credit (Friday, 28 June at 11.30am AEST)

• JP: Unemployment, IP and Retail Sales (Friday, 28 June at 9.30am AEST)
• CH: NBS PMIs (Sunday, 30 June at 11.30am AEST)

• US: CB Consumer Confidence (Wednesday, 26 June at 12.00am AEST)
• US: Durable goods orders (Thursday, 27 June at 10.30am AEST)
• US: Core PCE Price Index (Friday, 28 June at 10.30pm AEST)
• US: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final (Saturday, 29 June at 12.00am AEST)

• GE: Ifo Business Climate (Monday, 24 June at 6.00pm AEST)
• GE: GFK Consumer Confidence (Wednesday, 26 June at 4.00pm AEST)

• AU

Monthly CPI indicator

Date: Wednesday, 26 June at 11.30am AEST

In April, the monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator increased by 3.6% in the year to April 2024. This is up from 3.5% in the previous month and above forecasts for 3.4%. The core measures also increased, with the trimmed rising to 4.1% YoY from 4.0%, and the ex-volatile measures increasing to 4.2% from 4.1%, with a three-month annualised rate of 5%.

The most significant contributors to the April annual rise were housing (+4.9 per cent), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.8 per cent), alcohol and tobacco (+6.5 per cent), and transport (+4.2 per cent). Being the first month of the quarter, the report's details are increasingly concerning, as the report was skewed toward goods rather than the troublesome service components such as dining out, medical services, and transportation.

At its board meeting this week, the RBA noted that the pace of inflation decline has slowed in recent months, with inflation still some way above the midpoint of the 2-3% target range.

The RBA reiterated that returning inflation to target within a reasonable time frame remains its priority and added that it "will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome."

All eyes turn to the monthly CPI indicator with the preliminary expectation of a rise to 3.8% in May. Ahead of the release, the rates market is pricing in about a 15% chance of a 25 bp RBA rate hike in August to 4.60%.

Monthly CPI indiciator chart

• US

Core PCE price index

Date: Friday, 28 June at 10.30pm AEST

Following the downside surprises in US consumer and producer prices for May, market participants will be scrutinising the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price data. Market participants will be seeking signs of further inflation progress, to offer more flexibility for the Federal Reserve (Fed) around upcoming rate cuts.

Being the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, both the headline and core PCE data have eased significantly from their respective 2022 peaks to the current 2.7-2.8% level. Nonetheless, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to ‘modest further progress’ in inflation at the recent Fed meeting, he also mentioned that policymakers remain on the lookout for ‘greater confidence’ in inflation before loosening policies.

Looking ahead, expectations are for US headline PCE to come in at 2.6% YoY, versus the 2.7% prior. The core aspect is expected to come in at 2.6% as well, versus the 2.8% prior.

Headline and core PCE price index chart

• CN

NBS PMIs

Date: Sunday, 30 June at 11.30am AEST

China’s official May manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surprised markets with a reversion back into contractionary territory at 49.5. This is down from the 50.4 prior and trailed expectations for an improvement to 50.5. Non-manufacturing activities for May underperformed as well, coming in at 51.5 versus the expected 51.5 and marking its lowest level since February 2024.

The third straight month of weaker PMI data seems to suggest that the strong bounce seen in March may just be a blip and highlights the ongoing challenges for China’s economic recovery. Further downside surprises in the upcoming PMI data may serve as a warning sign for the country’s recovery, which may raise calls for more to be done to better meet its 2024 growth target of around 5%.

NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI chart