Ahead of the game: 27 May 2024

This week, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended their multi-week winning streaks as hotter-than-expected economic data pushed back expectations of Fed rate cuts. In contrast, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is poised to extend its winning streak following Nvidia's bumper earnings report, which saw its share price surge 9.3%.

The ASX 200 also snapped its four-week winning streak due to concerns over prolonged higher interest rates in the US. This weighed on commodities, the ASX 200 resource sector, and the interest-rate-sensitive consumer discretionary and real estate sectors.

• FOMC minutes from May show some members are open to more hikes if needed
• US composite flash PMI jumped to 54.4 in May, the highest since April 2022, up from 51.3 in April
• New Zealand's central bank kept the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% and hinted rates will stay high for longer
• UK's latest inflation report dampened hopes for a BoE rate cut in June. Core inflation slowed to 3.9% YoY, but beat expectations of 3.6%
• US initial jobless claims dropped 8k to 215k, indicating last week's rise to 223k was likely due to holiday distortions
• Crude oil fell 3.3% this week, trading at $76.90 per barrel, pressured by strong US economic data and expectations of higher rates
• Gold dropped 3.3% this week to $2333, hit by higher US yields and a stronger dollar
• Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX, rose to 12.78 from 11.98

• AU: Retail Sales (Tuesday, 28 May at 11:30am AEST)
• AU: Monthly CPI indicator (Wednesday, 29 May at 11:30am AEST)
• AU: Construction work done Q1 (Wednesday, 29 May at 11:30am AEST)
• AU: Building approvals (Thursday, 30 May at 11:30am AEST)
• AU: Housing credit (Friday, 31 May at 11:30am AEST)

• JP: Consumer Confidence (Wednesday, 29 May at 3:00pm AEST)
• CH: NBS Manufacturing PMI (Friday, 31 May at 11:30am AEST)
• CH: Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Friday, 31 May at 11:30am AEST)

• US: CB Consumer Confidence (Wednesday, 29 May at 12:00am AEST)
• US: Core PCE Price Index (Friday, 31 May at 10:30pm AEST)

• EA: Inflation (Friday, 31 May at 7:00pm AEST)

• AU

Monthly CPI indicator

Date: Wednesday, 29 May at 11.30am AEST

Several key Australian inflation measures released in late April surprised to the upside. Headline inflation in Q1 2024 rose by 3.6% YoY, down from 4.1% in the prior period but above market expectations of 3.4%. The RBA’s preferred measure of core inflation, Trimmed Mean, increased by 4% YoY, above market expectations of 3.8%

Separately, the Monthly CPI indicator for March rose 3.5% YoY, above market expectations of a 3.2% YoY rise. Furthermore, the three-month rolling average annualised growth rate in the seasonally adjusted core measure increased to 3.6% YoY from 2.8%

The higher-than-expected inflation readings were noted in the minutes from the RBA’s May Board meeting: “Inflation had eased further in the March quarter in year-ended terms, but the pace of disinflation had slowed, and the recent inflation data were stronger than had been expected in February”

While the RBA Board discussed raising rates at the May meeting, it elected to keep rates on hold as "staff forecasts presented a credible path back to the inflation target, with the risks surrounding the forecasts judged to be balanced"

As April is the first month of the new quarter, this Monthly CPI indicator will only provide updates on about 60% of the basket. Additionally, it will be skewed towards goods rather than the troublesome service components such as dining out, medical services, and transportation. The preliminary expectation is for the Monthly Indicator in April to ease to 3.3% YoY from 3.5%.

Monthly CPI indicator

• EU

Inflation

Date: Friday, 31 May at 7.00pm AEST

After UK inflation surprise to the upside this week, attention turns to the Euro Area as the market readies to receive its latest inflation update.

Last month, the headline annual inflation rate in the EA was stable at 2.4%, the same as in March, holding at its lowest level in three years. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, fell for a ninth straight month to 2.7%, the lowest level since February 2022.

Inflation's steady progress towards the ECB’s target has played a significant role in the central bank's dovish tilt earlier this year. The rates market is almost 100% priced for a 25 basis points (bp) ECB rate cut in June. Therefore, it cannot afford any inflationary upside surprises next week.

The market's preliminary expectation for this month is for headline inflation to increase to 2.4% YoY. However, core inflation, which is by far more important reading, is expected to ease to 2.5% YoY

EA core inflation

• US

Core PCE price index

Date: Thursday, 31 May at 10.30pm AEST

Until recently, headline and core PCE price inflation has trended lower since September 2022. However, in March, headline PCE inflation increased to 2.7% YoY from 2.5% prior, above the 2.6% expected. Core inflation remained stable in March at 2.8% YoY, compared with market expectations of a fall to 2.7%.

Comforted by the release of cooler CPI and PPI data earlier this month, which contain components that feed through into PCE inflation, headline PCE inflation is expected to ease to 2.6% YoY. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, is expected to ease to 2.7% YoY from 2.8%.

The minutes from the Feds meeting in May, which followed three straight months of higher-than-expected inflation reports, revealed that “various” participants would be willing to hike rates further if necessary. While the minutes preceded the release of cooler CPI and labour market data, it was enough to see the rates market reduce the probability of a rate cut to a fraction better than a coin toss.

Headline PCE Price Index MoM

Q1 2024 earnings season

The Q1 2024 earnings season is in the home straight, with companies scheduled to report this week, including Salesforce, Kohls Corp, Costco Wholesale Corp, Nordstrom, Marvell Technology and Zscaler.

Release dates