Charting the markets: 11/1/24
With US inflation data out in three hours’ time, IGTV caught up with Serge Berger from The Steady Trader.
He begins by looking at the correlation between the US dollar versus equities vesrsus rates. The movement so far this year is that rates and USD are down versus risk assets. His belief is that inflation may be stickier than hoped and this means that money starts to return to USD. What then for gold?
We also get a chance to look at equities and some of the stocks to watch - the big players such as Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta etc. versus the NASDAQ. Berger discusses how to trade these stocks which he warns could retrench by 10, 20 or even 30% and still be good companies, it’s a question of ensuring your positioning and if and when any retracement comes, you’re prepared.
(AI Video Summary)
Upcoming US inflation data
In this video, Jeremy Naylor interviews Serge Berger, a trading expert from thesteadytrader.com, and they talk about what's happening in the market and possible trading opportunities. They focus on the upcoming US inflation data and how it might affect the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in March.
Berger explains that understanding the relationship between different assets, like stocks, the dollar, and bond yields, is really important for figuring out where the market is going. He suggests that if inflation stays high and interest rates stay strong, it might limit the potential for stocks to go up.
Impact on EUR/USD and gold
They also discuss potential trades involving the EUR/USD and gold. Berger thinks that if the dollar gets stronger, the value of the EUR/USD trade might go down and could reach levels around 1.0670. But he advises waiting for the CPI data before making any decisions. As for gold, Berger says that its performance is closely tied to real interest rates. If rates start going up, it could make gold more likely to drop in value.
A warning on big stocks
Then they talk about the risk of focusing too much on big stocks like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. These stocks have been driving the market to new highs, but Berger warns that if something goes wrong or if these stocks start dropping, it could cause a chain reaction of selling in the market. He suggests being careful and using stop-loss orders to protect your investment if things start going south.
The video ends with Naylor mentioning that they'll be live on the tastylive platform to analyse the CPI data and see how it might affect the Federal Reserve's actions in March.
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