Oil plummets on API surplus, partially recovers this morning
Spot gold prices dropped during the session, silver relatively outperformed again.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Unlike equities (and some FX majors) where prices were breaking key pivot points, spot gold prices were relatively sedate in comparison to future prices and remained rangebound failing to offer conformist nor contrarian strategies a play on a lack of pivot point action. Equities were initially surging which usually translates into weakness for the safe haven metal, but the US dollar was also in decline and it's likelier than not that even with a price decline in precious metals, investors will be more keen to keep a greater percentage in something more tangible and non-fiat. The US Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) minutes will be released this evening, of importance to any USD-denominated metal.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
The lack of significant change here has meant that retail bias is unchanged at a heavy long 75%.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
As with gold, silver prices failed to reach beyond its key pivot points, and in turn not offering contrarian or conformist strategies a play. When buy-everything moments occur the likes of which were partially witnessed yesterday in equities, it usually translates into silver outperforming against gold prices similar to what we saw on Monday. The gold/silver ratio dropped back down briefly into the 107s as silver outperformed compared to spot gold before partially recovering.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
In sentiment, retail traders upped their bias on Monday to 93% anticipating further price gains, but those fresh longs have been quicker to take profit, and in turn taking the bias slightly lower to a (still) extreme long 91% when prices moved briefly higher in yesterday’s session.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
We're approaching closer and closer to the big event for oil prices, with 'OPEC+ and Friends' set for a virtual meeting tomorrow (and another call between G20 energy ministers scheduled for Friday), and any rumors prior of a deal likely to make oil prices more volatile, the absence of which keeping the energy commodity relatively rangebound only briefly breaking through yesterday's 1st Support level following a massive 11.9m surplus from API's (American Petroleum Institute) oil inventories estimate. EIA's (Energy Information Administration) more encompassing estimate is up next expected to show a similar 9.8m increase, though for now oil prices are recovering this morning.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail long bias rose yesterday back to extreme long levels at 77%, and has since increased further to 80% as fresh shorts get enticed into closing out following yesterday's drop.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
Be sure to request IG’s Weekly & Daily Market Report when you open an account with IG Dubai and get access to the full information on the FX majors, commodities, indices, and Bitcoin.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
React to volatility on commodity markets
Trade commodity futures, as well as 27 commodity markets with no fixed expiries.
- Wide range of popular and niche metals, energies and softs
- Spreads from 0.3 pts on Spot Gold, 2 pts on Spot Silver and 2.8 pts on Oil
- View continuous charting, backdated for up to five years
See opportunity on a commodity?
Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re on to something.
- Log in to your demo
- Try a risk-free trade
- See whether your hunch pays off
See opportunity on a commodity?
Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.
- Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
- Get spreads from just 0.3 points on Spot Gold
- See and react to breaking news in-platform
See opportunity on a commodity?
Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
