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Week commencing 17 February

Chris Beauchamp's insight

A quieter week lies ahead, and starts on a subdued note with a US market holiday. UK employment, inflation and retail sales data are worth watching as the pound surges against the dollar, while the RBA is expected to cut rates once more. Mining and bank stocks dominate in UK earnings, most notably retail titan Lloyds, while US earnings are very light.

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Economic reports

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Weekly view

Presidents’ Day – US markets closed

None

3.30am (London time) – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be cut to 4.1%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

7am (London time) – UK employment data: December unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.4%, while average hourly earnings including bonuses are expected to rise 5.9% for the three months to December, from 5.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am (London time) – German ZEW index (February): economic sentiment index forecast to fall to 9 from 10.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm (London time) – Canada CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 1.8% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 1.8% and -0.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

1.30pm (London time) – US Empire state index (February): index forecast to rebound to 2 from -12.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses

7am (London time) – UK CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.5% and 0.3%, and core CPI to rise 3.1% YoY, from 3.2%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

7pm (London time) – FOMC minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

12.30am (London time) – Australia unemployment (January): unemployment rate expected to hold at 4%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 February): claims expected to rise to 220K from 213K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

4pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 14 February): stockpiles rose by 4 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

11.30pm (London time) – Japan CPI (January): prices expected to rise 3.7% YoY and core CPI to rise to 3.2% from 3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am (London time) – UK retail sales (January): sales forecast to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

8.30am (London time) – German PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 45.9 from 45. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am (London time) – UK PMI (February, flash): services PMI expected to rise to 51 from 50.8, and manufacturing to fall to 47.5 from 48.5. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

2.45pm (London time) – US PMI (February, flash): services expected to fall to 52.7 from 52.9, and manufacturing to rise to 51.3 from 51.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm (London time) – US existing sales (January): forecast to fall 1.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Monday

Presidents’ Day – US markets closed

None


Tuesday

3.30am (London time) – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be cut to 4.1%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

7am (London time) – UK employment data: December unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.4%, while average hourly earnings including bonuses are expected to rise 5.9% for the three months to December, from 5.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am (London time) – German ZEW index (February): economic sentiment index forecast to fall to 9 from 10.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm (London time) – Canada CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 1.8% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 1.8% and -0.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

1.30pm (London time) – US Empire state index (February): index forecast to rebound to 2 from -12.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses


Wednesday

7am (London time) – UK CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.5% and 0.3%, and core CPI to rise 3.1% YoY, from 3.2%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

7pm (London time) – FOMC minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses


Thursday

12.30am (London time) – Australia unemployment (January): unemployment rate expected to hold at 4%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 February): claims expected to rise to 220K from 213K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

4pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 14 February): stockpiles rose by 4 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

11.30pm (London time) – Japan CPI (January): prices expected to rise 3.7% YoY and core CPI to rise to 3.2% from 3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses


Friday

7am (London time) – UK retail sales (January): sales forecast to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

8.30am (London time) – German PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 45.9 from 45. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am (London time) – UK PMI (February, flash): services PMI expected to rise to 51 from 50.8, and manufacturing to fall to 47.5 from 48.5. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

2.45pm (London time) – US PMI (February, flash): services expected to fall to 52.7 from 52.9, and manufacturing to rise to 51.3 from 51.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm (London time) – US existing sales (January): forecast to fall 1.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Company announcements

Monday
17 February

Tuesday
18 February

Wednesday
19 February

Thursday
20 February

Friday
21 February

Full-year earnings

Intercontinental Hotels,
Antofagasta

HSBC,
Rio Tinto,
Glencore,
BAE Systems

Lloyds,
Anglo American

Standard Chartered

Half/ Quarterly earnings

BHP

Walmart

Trading update*

AO World

Dividends

FTSE 100: Imperial Brands, easyJet, Land Securities, GSK, AstraZeneca, BP

FTSE 250: Moonpig, NCC, PRS Rei

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

Monday
17 February
Tuesday
18 February
Wednesday
19 February
Thursday
20 February
Friday
21 February
Monday
24 February
FTSE 100 19.42
Australia 200 1.8 12.6 5.5 1.4 4 1.4
Wall Street 7.6 5.1 4.9
US 500 0.93 0.11 0.83 0.24 0.41 0.1
Nasdaq 0.21 3.92 1.05 1.17 0.11
Netherlands 25
EU Stocks 50 0.7
China H-Shares
Singapore Blue Chip
Hong Kong HS50 0.8
South Africa 40
Japan 225

* Please note these can change without notice

1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day

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Deal seamlessly, wherever you are

Trade on the move with our natively designed, award-winning trading app

Feel secure with a trusted provider

With 45 years' experience, we’re proud to offer a truly market-leading service