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Week commencing 1 July
Chris Beauchamp's insight
US non-farm payrolls and the US election dominate the week ahead, though eurozone markets will be digesting the impact of the first round French elections that take place on 30 June, with the second round occurring on 7 July. Also on the calendar for the week are the monthly ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures. Meanwhile trading updates from Primark owner Associated British Foods and supermarket Sainsbury’s provide the only interest in a light week for corporate news.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (June): index expected to fall to 51.2 from 51.7. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
6am – Japan consumer confidence (June): expected to fall to 36 from 36.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1pm – German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (June, preliminary): prices expected to rise 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) from 2.4%, and 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) from 0.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (June): forecast to rise to 50 from the contractionary level of 48.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.30am – RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
10am – eurozone CPI (June): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM, from 2.6% and 0.2%. Core CPI to rise 2.5% from 2.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.30pm – Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Powell speaks: due to speak at ECB Forum in Sintra. Markets to watch: USD crosses
12.50am – Japan Tankan index quarter 2 (Q2): index to fall to 10 from 11. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (June): index forecast to fall to 53.7 from 54. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June): 100K jobs expected to have been created, from 152K last month. Last month’s ADP number was wildly different to the non-farm payrolls number. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 29 June): claims expected to rise to 235K from 233K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM services PMI (June): forecast to fall to 53.5 from 53.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 28 June): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 3.6 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes: policy was left unchanged at the last meeting. Markets to watch: USD crossers
US Independence Day – US markets closed
UK General Election: polls close at 10pm, current polling gives the Labour Party a significant lead over the incumbent Conservatives. Labour highly likely to form the next government. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses
9.30am – UK construction PMI (June): index forecast to fall to 51.7 from 54.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June): previous month’s figure smashed expectations at 272K, this month expected to see 160K jobs created. Unemployment rate to hold at 4%, and average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2% from 0.4% MoM, and 3.6% from 4.1% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment report (June): unemployment rate forecast to hold at 6.2%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – US Ivey PMI (June): index expected to rise to 53.4 from 52. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Monday
2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (June): index expected to fall to 51.2 from 51.7. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
6am – Japan consumer confidence (June): expected to fall to 36 from 36.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1pm – German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (June, preliminary): prices expected to rise 2.3% YoY from 2.4%, and 0.2% MoM from 0.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (June): forecast to rise to 50 from the contractionary level of 48.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
2.30am – RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
10am – eurozone CPI (June): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.1% MoM, from 2.6% and 0.2%. Core CPI to rise 2.5% from 2.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.30pm – Fed chair Powell speaks: due to speak at ECB Forum in Sintra. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
12.50am – Japan Tankan index quarter 2 (Q2): index to fall to 10 from 11. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (June): index forecast to fall to 53.7 from 54. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June): 100K jobs expected to have been created, from 152K last month. Last month’s ADP number was wildly different to the non-farm payrolls number. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 29 June): claims expected to rise to 235K from 233K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – US ISM services PMI (June): forecast to fall to 53.5 from 53.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 28 June): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 3.6 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – FOMC minutes: policy was left unchanged at the last meeting. Markets to watch: USD crossers
Thursday
US Independence Day – US markets closed
UK General Election: polls close at 10pm, current polling gives the Labour Party a significant lead over the incumbent Conservatives. Labour highly likely to form the next government. Markets to watch: FTSE 100, FTSE 250, GBP crosses
9.30am – UK construction PMI (June): index forecast to fall to 51.7 from 54.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Friday
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June): previous month’s figure smashed expectations at 272K, this month expected to see 160K jobs created. Unemployment rate to hold at 4%, and average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.2% from 0.4% MoM, and 3.6% from 4.1% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment report (June): unemployment rate forecast to hold at 6.2%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – US Ivey PMI (June): index expected to rise to 53.4 from 52. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Company announcements
|
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday 4 July |
Friday |
Full-year earnings |
|||||
Half/ Quarterly earnings |
|||||
Trading update* |
Associated British Foods | Sainsbury's | Topps Tiles |
Dividends
FTSE 100: Next
FTSE 250: Murray Int’l Trus, ICG Enterprise Trust, Bank of Georgia, Big Yellow Group, Paragon Banking, Workspace, Safestore
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index adjustments
|
Monday 1 July |
Tuesday 2 July |
Wednesday 3 July |
Thursday 4 July |
Friday 5 July |
Monday 8 July |
| FTSE 100 | 0.68 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||||
| Wall Street | 14.8 | 3 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.88 | 0.18 | 0.08 | |
| Nasdaq | 1.61 | 2.13 | 0.28 | |||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| EU Stocks 50 | 2.9 | |||||
| China H-Shares | 3 | 12.1 | 39.6 | 44.4 | ||
| Singapore Blue Chip | ||||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 6.8 | 18.9 | 74.9 | 84.1 | ||
| South Africa 40 | 18.7 | |||||
| Japan 225 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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