The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 17 February
Chris Beauchamp's insight
A quieter week lies ahead, and starts on a subdued note with a US market holiday. UK employment, inflation and retail sales data are worth watching as the pound surges against the dollar, while the RBA is expected to cut rates once more. Mining and bank stocks dominate in UK earnings, most notably retail titan Lloyds, while US earnings are very light.
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Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
Presidents’ Day – US markets closed
None
3.30am (London time) – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be cut to 4.1%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
7am (London time) – UK employment data: December unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.4%, while average hourly earnings including bonuses are expected to rise 5.9% for the three months to December, from 5.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am (London time) – German ZEW index (February): economic sentiment index forecast to fall to 9 from 10.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm (London time) – Canada CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 1.8% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 1.8% and -0.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US Empire state index (February): index forecast to rebound to 2 from -12.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
7am (London time) – UK CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.5% and 0.3%, and core CPI to rise 3.1% YoY, from 3.2%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
7pm (London time) – FOMC minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
12.30am (London time) – Australia unemployment (January): unemployment rate expected to hold at 4%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 February): claims expected to rise to 220K from 213K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 14 February): stockpiles rose by 4 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
11.30pm (London time) – Japan CPI (January): prices expected to rise 3.7% YoY and core CPI to rise to 3.2% from 3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
7am (London time) – UK retail sales (January): sales forecast to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.30am (London time) – German PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 45.9 from 45. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am (London time) – UK PMI (February, flash): services PMI expected to rise to 51 from 50.8, and manufacturing to fall to 47.5 from 48.5. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm (London time) – US PMI (February, flash): services expected to fall to 52.7 from 52.9, and manufacturing to rise to 51.3 from 51.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US existing sales (January): forecast to fall 1.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
Presidents’ Day – US markets closed
None
Tuesday
3.30am (London time) – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be cut to 4.1%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
7am (London time) – UK employment data: December unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.4%, while average hourly earnings including bonuses are expected to rise 5.9% for the three months to December, from 5.6%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am (London time) – German ZEW index (February): economic sentiment index forecast to fall to 9 from 10.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm (London time) – Canada CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 1.8% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 1.8% and -0.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US Empire state index (February): index forecast to rebound to 2 from -12.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
7am (London time) – UK CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.5% and 0.3%, and core CPI to rise 3.1% YoY, from 3.2%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
7pm (London time) – FOMC minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
12.30am (London time) – Australia unemployment (January): unemployment rate expected to hold at 4%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 February): claims expected to rise to 220K from 213K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
4pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 14 February): stockpiles rose by 4 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
11.30pm (London time) – Japan CPI (January): prices expected to rise 3.7% YoY and core CPI to rise to 3.2% from 3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
Friday
7am (London time) – UK retail sales (January): sales forecast to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
8.30am (London time) – German PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 45.9 from 45. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
9.30am (London time) – UK PMI (February, flash): services PMI expected to rise to 51 from 50.8, and manufacturing to fall to 47.5 from 48.5. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
2.45pm (London time) – US PMI (February, flash): services expected to fall to 52.7 from 52.9, and manufacturing to rise to 51.3 from 51.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US existing sales (January): forecast to fall 1.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
|
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Full-year earnings |
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HSBC, Rio Tinto, Glencore, BAE Systems |
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Half/ Quarterly earnings |
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Trading update* |
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Dividends
FTSE 100: Imperial Brands, easyJet, Land Securities, GSK, AstraZeneca, BP
FTSE 250: Moonpig, NCC, PRS Rei
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index adjustments
|
Monday 17 February |
Tuesday 18 February |
Wednesday 19 February |
Thursday 20 February |
Friday 21 February |
Monday 24 February |
FTSE 100 | 19.42 | |||||
Australia 200 | 1.8 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 1.4 |
Wall Street | 7.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | |||
US 500 | 0.93 | 0.11 | 0.83 | 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.1 |
Nasdaq | 0.21 | 3.92 | 1.05 | 1.17 | 0.11 | |
Netherlands 25 | ||||||
EU Stocks 50 | 0.7 | |||||
China H-Shares | ||||||
Singapore Blue Chip | ||||||
Hong Kong HS50 | 0.8 | |||||
South Africa 40 | ||||||
Japan 225 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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