Fresh highs for indices as trade optimism and better than expected US employment figures aid sentiment
Weekly technical overview for Dow, Nasdaq and DAX remain a somewhat stalling bull trend with gains limited intraweek (and usually intraday).
Dow Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
There might have been some fear due to Thursday's drop denting its initializing bull trend following the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) 0.25% rate cut on Wednesday, but it managed to recover and finish higher on Friday, taking its price close to its mid-term resistance level. The energy sector last Friday outperformed while it was only real estate and utilities that were in the red, albeit slightly. Both daily and weekly continue to show a bull trend even if gains are lacking momentum, as last week's weekly 1st Resistance level got breached but offered little gains for buy on breakout strategies.
| Current Technical Overview | Bull Trend - Stalling |
| Technical Overview Conformist Strategies | Buy 1st Support After Reversal, Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below |
| Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies | Sell 1st Resistance At/Before Price, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above |
| S/L for 2nd Resistance | 28299 |
| 2nd Resistance | 28091 |
| S/L for 1st Resistance | 27883 |
| 1st Resistance | 27675 |
| Relative Starting Point | 27259 |
| 1st Support | 26843 |
| S/L for 1st Support | 26635 |
| 2nd Support | 26427 |
| S/L for 2nd Support | 26219 |
IG client and CoT sentiment for Dow
Retail bias has surged 7% to an extreme short 78% as shorts continue to get tested, while the latest figures from the Commitment of Trader's report show an increase in both long and short positioning keeping the bias at extreme long levels.
Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment
| Current Technical Overview | Bull Trend |
| Technical Overview Conformist Strategies | Buy 1st Support After Reversal, Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below |
| Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies | Sell 1st Resistance At/Before Price, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above |
| S/L for 2nd Resistance | 8554 |
| 2nd Resistance | 8475 |
| S/L for 1st Resistance | 8397 |
| 1st Resistance | 8318 |
| Relative Starting Point | 8160 |
| 1st Support | 8003 |
| S/L for 1st Support | 7924 |
| 2nd Support | 7845 |
| S/L for 2nd Support | 7766 |
IG client and CoT sentiment for Nasdaq
That slow pace higher is attracting averaged-in shorts, with the bias amongst retail traders now at an extreme short 79% (higher than late last week but lower than the start of last week's 81% bias). Meanwhile, CoT bias is majority short and rising, with the increase in long positions by 2,369 lots outdoing a smaller increase in shorts by only 501 lots.
Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Dax Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
A brief glance at the main technical indicators and the chart on both the daily and weekly for the DAX and they're almost all flashing green, with the technical overview in both cases a bull trend but where its clearly stalling and offering limited momentum as intraday (and intraweek) gains have been limiting even if the finish is to the upside, a theme common amongst other indices as well. Given the lack of intraweek movement its price managed to reach neither last week's weekly 1st Resistance or 1st Support levels.
| Current Technical Overview | Bull Trend - Stalling |
| Technical Overview Conformist Strategies | Buy 1st Support After Reversal, Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below |
| Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies | Sell 1st Resistance At/Before Price, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above |
| S/L for 2nd Resistance | 13476 |
| 2nd Resistance | 13370 |
| S/L for 1st Resistance | 13264 |
| 1st Resistance | 13158 |
| Relative Starting Point | 12947 |
| 1st Support | 12735 |
| S/L for 1st Support | 12629 |
| 2nd Support | 12523 |
| S/L for 2nd Support | 12417 |
IG client and CoT sentiment for DAX
As for sentiment, retail bias has inched higher to an extreme short 81%, and where the bulk of those shorts were initiated at lower price levels.
DAX chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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