The Macro Week - Russia, economic statistics and Bitcoin
A look at the big macro events this week
While last week highlighted a certain weakness in the bull market seen since the start of the year, investors still seem confident and could use this slight consolidation to buy again. On the other hand, a number of risks remain this week, with economic data from Europe, the United States and China, speeches by central bankers and news about US banks.
The situation in Russia will be under scrutiny, following Wagner's mutiny against the government and Putin over the weekend, which finally came to a swift halt after the leader of the independent armed group warned of the risk of a bloodbath if they were to go through with their plan to confront Russia's ruling powers.
The observers, the United States and Europe, seem reluctant to comment too quickly on how the situation is developing, and the week ahead could give us some clues as to the real aim of this rebellion and Putin's response. However, this attempt seems to have had no effect on the conflicts in Ukraine.
In addition to this major topic, there will be a number of speeches by central bankers this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday, ahead of a long-awaited report on the banks' stress tests.
The latter will be particularly closely watched, following the collapse of several banks last March and warnings from the Fed and the US Treasury about the possibility of other banks getting into trouble, and the risks to commercial property, which could put a little more pressure on the institutions that finance this activity.
On the Fed side, only one other FOMC member will speak on Thursday. At the ECB, 7 speeches by members of the central bank are expected, as well as several appearances by its President Christine Lagarde, notably at the ECB's economic forum on Thursday, the theme of which will be macroeconomic stabilization in a volatile environment.
In terms of statistics, there will be few publications at the start of the week before Thursday and Friday, which will be particularly closely watched by investors. On Monday, we will only be looking at the IFO indices in Germany, which are expected to contract again and could even surprise on the downside, as in the two previous publications.
On Tuesday, durable goods orders, consumer confidence and certain data on the US housing market will be closely watched. On Wednesday, only a consumer confidence index in Germany and the consumer price index (CPI) in Italy will be published, before oil stocks in the US.
On Thursday, the German CPI will be analyzed by the markets and is expected to rise in June, while some inflationary pressures remain in the eurozone. In the afternoon, we turn to the United States, with some of the PCE indices, which remain the Fed's favorite indicators for gauging inflation, and which should show a rebound over the past month.
In addition, final GDP figures are due to be published in the US, and are expected to rise by 1.4%, compared with 1.3% in the preliminary publication. Weekly jobless claims and promises of house sales will also be closely watched.
Friday will be the most important day in terms of statistics. The CPI in Tokyo, Japan, will be released overnight and should show a further rise, putting a little more pressure on the BoJ's monetary policy, which, unlike the ECB or the Fed, has remained extremely accommodating for a very long time now.
China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will give an indication of the strength of the rebound in the world's second-largest economy, while some global indices have risen sharply on the prospect of a strong rebound in the Chinese economy, but the latest data seemed to show that this might not hold for long.
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A little later, we will be watching for the publication of UK GDP, before retail sales and employment in Germany, the CPI in France, and then for the eurozone as a whole. The latter could remain high, and even show a further acceleration in core inflation to 5.5%.
In the second half of the day, we will be looking at the core PCE indices in the US, which should remain stable but still well above the Fed's target of 4.7%. Consumer spending and certain consumer confidence indicators will also be important for the markets.
The first-half earnings season is due to kick off in a fortnight' time, with forecasts for the rest of the year being closely watched by investors to gauge the possibility of a recession in the coming quarters. In the meantime, we will be keeping a close eye on a number of publications this week. On Tuesday, we'll be looking at Jefferies, before Micron on Wednesday and Nike on Thursday.
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