Ahead of the game: 13 May 2024

US equity markets appear poised to secure a third consecutive week of gains, driven by corporate earnings that surpassed expectations and labor market data that fell short of forecasts. This combination has fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates later in the year.

Likewise, the ASX 200 is headed towards notching its third week of continuous gains following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to maintain interest rates and adopt a tone that was more dovish than anticipated.

• UK's Bank of England holds rates at 5.25%, hints at cuts with dovish outlook
• In the US, Fed's Neel Kashkari hints at rates staying low for a while
• Australia's RBA keeps cash rate steady at 4.35%, less hawkish stance
• Chinese Trade Balance falls to $US72.35bn as imports outpace exports
• China's Caixin Services PMI dips slightly to 52.5
• Crude oil jumps 2%, hits $79.65 per barrel thanks to US stockpile drop and strong China imports
• Gold up 2% to $2347, buoyed by softer US dollar and yields
• Wall Street's VIX index drops to 12.68, signaling less fear.

• AU: NAB Business Confidence (Monday, 13 May at 11:30pm AEST)
• AU: Employment (Thursday, 16 May at 11:30am AEST)

• JP: GDP Q1 (Thursday, 16 May at 9:50am AEST)
• CN: Industrial Production (Friday, 17 May at 12:00pm AEST)
• CN: Retail Sales (Friday, 17 May at 12:00pm AEST)

• US: PPI (Tuesday, 14 May at 10:30pm AEST)
• US: CPI (Wednesday, 15 May at 10:30pm AEST)
• US: Retail Sales (Wednesday, 15 May at 10:30pm AEST)
• US: Building Permits (Thursday, 16 May at 10:30pm AEST)
• US: Industrial Production (Thursday, 16 May at 11:15pm AEST)

• GB: Employment (Tuesday, 14 May at 4:00pm AEST)
• GE: ZEW (Tuesday, 14 May at 4:00pm AEST)

• UK

Employment numbers

Date: Tuesday, 14 May at 4.00pm AEST

This week's BoE meeting went largely according to plan. The central bank kept rates unchanged at 5.25% in March. The vote split was 7-2, as two members dissented in favour of cuts. Accompanied by downward revisions to CPI forecasts and language tweaks, it opened the way to a rate cut in June, pending incoming data.

While inflation is the bank's main focus, there will be interest in next week's job data to support the case for an earlier cut. In February, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2% from 4.0%.

The market is looking for the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.2% in March. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate would increase the chances that the BoE will cut rates by 25 basis points (bp) in June, an outcome to which the rates market currently assigns a 50% probability.

UK unemployment rate

• US

CPI

Date: Wednesday, 15 May at 10.30pm AEST

The dovish takeaway in the recent Fed meeting and signs of weakness in US labour conditions have led markets to price for a rate cut in September this year, which helped to fuel a rally in Wall Street. That said, US policymakers mentioned that they are still on the lookout for ‘further progress’ on inflation and the upcoming CPI data will determine if markets have actually gotten ahead of themselves in their rate pricing.

With the CPI coming in higher-than-expected over the past four straight months, markets will want to see a downside surprise to be convinced that stagflation chatters will be off the table. Ahead, expectations are for both US headline and core consumer prices to increase 0.3% month-on-month, which will be lower than the 0.4% prior. US producer prices are expected to remain unchanged at 0.2% month-on-month.

• JP

GDP Q1

Date: Thursday, 16 May at 9.50am AEST

In 4Q 2023, Japan's economy managed to avoid a technical recession, expanding at an annualised growth of 0.4% from the previous quarter, which is higher than the 0.4% contraction expected. This was due to a better-than-expected increase in capital expenditure, although weakness was still very much presented in domestic demand with a larger contraction in private consumption.

For the upcoming 1Q annualised GDP growth data, Japan’s economy is expected to slip back into contraction territory, partly due to production disruptions in the automobile space affecting overall sales and rising prices potentially weighing on consumers. This may however be alleviated by strong tourism spending in the first quarter.

• AU

Employment numbers

Date: Thursday, 18 May at 11.30am AEST

In March, the Australian economy lost 6.6k jobs, versus consensus expectations of +7.2k, following a 117.6k rise the prior month. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8%, from 3.7% prior. The participation rate ticked up to 66.6% from 66.7%. Meanwhile, the underutilisation rate, which combines the unemployment and underemployment rates, was flat at 10.3%, above its post-pandemic low of 9.5%.

The ABS noted, "The labour market remained relatively tight in March, with an employment-to-population ratio and participation rate still close to their record highs in November 2023. While they have both fallen by 0.4 percentage points since then, they continue to be much higher than their pre-pandemic levels," said Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics.

In April, the market expects the economy to add 25k jobs and the unemployment rate to rise to 3.9% against an unchanged participation rate of 66.6%. The rates market is pricing in a 25% probability of a rate rise before year-end.

The odds of an RBA rate hike before year-end could rise further, pending next week's labour force report and the outcome of Tuesday's Federal Budget, with some estimating that the budget will add the equivalent of three rate cuts into the pockets of households.

AU unemployment rate

Q1 2024 earnings season

The Q1 2024 earnings season continues this week, with companies scheduled to report, including Sea Limited, Alibaba, Home Depot, Cisco, Walmart, JD.com, Baidu, Under Armour and Applied Materials.

Release dates