ASX 200 afternoon report: 18 December 2024

The ASX 200 trades 4 points (-0.05%) lower at 8310 as of 3.00pm AEDT.

ASX 200's early gains reversed ahead of key meeting

The ASX 200 has given back 29 points of early gains as the market takes a more cautious approach ahead of tomorrow morning's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Following recent reports of high inflation and increased activity in the United States (US), the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to announce a 25 basis point (bp) interest rate cut, likely accompanied by signals of a slower pace for future cuts. Specifically, the Fed's median 2025 dot is anticipated to show three rate cuts next year, down from the four previously forecast.

Local market speculation and the Santa Claus rally

Locally, today's mixed market performance has led to speculation about whether the Santa Claus rally began yesterday.

Although the Santa Claus rally is well-known for typically starting in mid-December, its exact timing varies each year and can be costly for traders if mistimed. For example, in 2018, the ASX 200 fell over 4% during the trading days from 18 December to 24 December before experiencing a significant rally in the first half of 2019.

Historically, once the rally starts, momentum tends to increase into early January. We will likely need to wait for the outcomes of the FOMC meeting to see more evidence of this.

ASX 200 stocks

Property sector

The interest rate-sensitive property sector gained.

• Centuria Capital added 1.5% to $1.86
• GPT Group gained 1.12% to $4.51
• Charter Hall rose 0.75% to $14.71
• Stockland Group edged 0.5% higher to $5.00

Healthcare stocks

• Telix Pharmaceuticals surged 2.5% to $25.56
• Pro Medicus added 2.22% to $263.01
• CSL rose 1.44% to $282.94
• Ansell edged 0.27% higher to $33.67

Technology stocks

• Zip surged 7.22% to $3.12, rebounding after falling from a high of $3.56 to Monday's low of $2.79
• DroneShield gained 4.51% to $0.64, still far from its mid-July $2.72 high

Financial sector

The big banks have generally declined.

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) lost 1.23% to $159.17
• Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) fell 0.54% to $29.26
• National Australia Bank (NAB) slipped 0.51% to $37.99
• Macquarie lost 0.24% to $226.89
• Westpac defied the trend, climbing 0.34% to $32.75

Energy sector

The ASX 200 energy sector, down over 21% this year, hit a fresh three-year low today before dip buyers emerged.

• Beach Energy gained 0.18% to $1.36
• AGL Energy added 0.46% to $10.85
• Woodside Energy gained 0.32% to $23.59

ASX 200 technical analysis

The ASX 200's December pullback, which played out via a head-and-shoulders topping pattern, seems complete at yesterday's 8236 low. The rebound suggests the start of the Santa Claus rally for 2024.

As long as the index remains above yesterday's 8236.7 low, there is potential for a retest of the 8514 high in the weeks ahead.

ASX 200 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 18 December 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}