Daily Market Report: GOLD, SILVER, OIL – US CRUDE
Gold retraces off the highs as both retail and institutional bias majority long ahead of tomorrow’s NFP.
GOLD: Short-term resistance level holding as equities rise
Equities continued to rise, and yields dropped on lower long-term growth worries, with the net result a retracement off the highs for this pair following Tuesday’s surge. The tussle continues for this pair between a lagging greenback, a rise in geopolitical tensions, and a fall in yields keeping the precious metal bid, while a surge in equities on the other denting safe haven inflows as investors increase their risk appetite. Meanwhile, a currency war may be brewing in the background, and if it even partially comes to fruition it’ll mean products that are seen as a hedge against inflation will outperform. Going into tomorrow’s NFP report both retail and institutional traders are holding majority long bias, the former at 63% and the latter at an extreme long 83%.
SILVER: Suffering retracement on a broken short-term bull trend line
Both gold and silver suffered retracement yesterday, but given the increased volatility with gold, the losses here were more limiting (relative to its technical overview), with positive technical bias still holding even as its short-term bull trend get broken. If the US dollar continues to retreat, it may aid in keeping this pair bid, especially if tomorrow’s NFP report disappoints. However, intraday volatility has remained somewhat sedate, and with a non-trending ADX reversals and breakouts for limited profit-taking.
OIL – US CRUDE: EIA posts smaller than expected deficit as technical overview remains mixed
With the daily technical indicators closely huddled together for this energy commodity, shifts in its technical overview may occur more frequently. Retracement off the lows did occur yesterday, though some of those gains are being given back as of today morning. EIA’s 1.1M deficit was below expectations, and certainly below API’s estimate the night before, with tomorrow’s NFP report giving clues as to where the greenback may settle before the weekend. Retail traders are primarily range-trading with fresh longs taking profit yesterday and reducing majority long bias by 5%, while institutional bias continues to push into extreme long sentiment levels.
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