Daily Market Report: GOLD, SILVER, US OIL
Gold institutional bias rises to an extreme long 85%
GOLD: Down but not out as focus turns to the US dollar and yields
It was another red day for the precious metal, though not enough to undo its current technical overview of a bull trend that has been stalling heavily at the highs and failing to breach above its short-term resistance level. With Fed speak heavy this week, focus will turn to the US dollar to see where it stands when the dust settles, especially in terms of yields which if they remain at the lows could aid non-yielding assets. And with geopolitical tensions failing to subside, could still give its price a chance to remain bid. Meanwhile, the bias is majority long for both retail and institutional traders, the former unchanged at a heavy long 67% and the latter edging even higher to an extreme long 85% on an increase in gold longs by 14.6K lots and a simultaneous reduction in shorts by 7.8K lots.
SILVER: Slight rise off the lows, but most of its indicators remain neutral
Neutral seems to be the key takeaway for this pair’s price movement, failing to trend in either direction despite a trending ADX which is usually meaningless if the remaining indicators are mostly neutral, which here is the case. Its price crossed back above its 200-day moving average and briefly above its 100-day MA, but as it stands a lack of follow through for gold will make the case weaker for this precious metal. Institutional bias is a more modest 59% on similar increases in both silver long and short positioning of over 2K lots, but far below the extreme long bias held by silver retail traders of 95% and the gold institutional bias of 85%.
OIL – US CRUDE: Relatively sedate price movement in line with its current consolidatory technical overview
It’s rare for oil prices to remain this consolidatory for long, especially when geopolitical tensions remain high in some oil-producing countries. Yet, that’s been the case for this energy commodity, and the moves have been in line with its current consolidatory technical overview that’s still showing a slight touch of negative bias as its price remains just below all its main long-term moving averages having failed to successfully breach its 50-day and 200-day moving averages yesterday. Yet, if tensions fail to subside, it could give oil prices a leg to stand on, and in the process aid extreme long institutional traders who have since upped that bias slightly on an increase in longs by 16.2K lots outdoing a smaller increase in shorts of only 2.2K lots. As for retail traders, they continue to hold a more modest heavy long bias of 60%.
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