Daily Market Report: Gold, Silver, & US Oil
Silver outperforms while gold lags, oil prices rise on API deficit and geopolitical tensions.
GOLD: Gain in risk appetite and USD strength keep gold’s price at bay
With equities finishing in the green and the US dollar outperforming, it was an easy finish lower for this pair’s price, but not one that has dented its current bull trend technical overview that continues to stall heavily at the highs and with a non-trending ADX. Fed Fund futures are little changed in terms of rate cut expectations, with one .25% cut fully priced in for the end of this month and a potential third cut by the end of this year. Geopolitical tensions have failed to subside and that might be positive for gold, but if the greenback strengthens with it it’ll be tougher to make fresher highs. In terms of bias, a retreat in price continues to entice fresh longs, with the bias edging higher to a heavy long 72%.
SILVER: Continuing to outperform compared to its precious metal cousin, 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA
Gold's price may have ended in the red yesterday on greenback strength, but silver's price managed to best the dollar and finish higher, outperforming once again and keeping its initializing bull trend technical overview intact and all its technical indicators flashing green. There’s also been a moving average cross with the 50-day MA crossing above its 200-day MA. Both retail and institutional traders have positioned themselves for ongoing price increases, the former’s bias at an extreme long 86% and the latter at a more modest majority long 61%.
OIL – US CRUDE: Massive API deficit and geopolitical tensions aid oil’s price
Supply side worries have increased even more, with API’s nearly 11M deficit enough to send crude’s price higher for a third consecutive day, and nearly crossing above both the 200-day and 50-day MA’s in the process. EIA’s more encompassing figure will be released later today, expected to show a smaller 4.2M deficit but still confirm that US inventories are dwindling. On the demand side, worries have also persisted with PMI figures released today set to affirm the ongoing contraction in manufacturing, and following yesterday’s unexpected US Richmond index contraction. The gains are in favor of both retail and institutional traders who are holding heavy to extreme long bias, with the former reducing their bias by 2% to a 71% buy bias on long profit-taking.
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