EUR/USD: Preliminary PMIs and the ECB’s monetary policy announcement
Technicals set to get shelved ahead of fundamental event, with retail and institutional bias both majority short.
The latest in EUR/USD:
It's a big day for the euro and hence euro-based pairs like this one, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its monetary policy in what will be its president Draghi's last before stepping down. Not much is expected this time around, as last month's resulted in a bond purchasing program announcement set to begin (or resume) next month, and a reduction in its deposit facility rate to -0.5%. There will also be preliminary PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) figures out of the Eurozone to contend with.
EUR/USD Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Technicals are usually less relevant on a day of significant fundamental decisions, and risk-taking limited on an expected lack of liquidity. That being said, the pair still enjoys relative positive bias thanks to last week's big moves, but those gains are easily at risk of being undone and hence sell breakout strategies can't be ruled out even if it runs contrary to the current technical overview.
| Current Technical Overview | Consolidation - Positive Bias |
| Technical Overview Conformist Strategies | Sell 1st Resistance After Reversal, Buy 1st Support At/Before Price |
| Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies | Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above |
| S/L for 2nd Resistance | 1.1250 |
| 2nd Resistance | 1.1226 |
| S/L for 1st Resistance | 1.1203 |
| 1st Resistance | 1.1180 |
| Relative Starting Point | 1.1133 |
| 1st Support | 1.1086 |
| S/L for 1st Support | 1.1063 |
| 2nd Support | 1.1040 |
| S/L for 2nd Support | 1.1016 |
IG client and CoT sentiment for EUR/USD
Going into today's big event, retail bias is majority short at 57% and institutional sentiment isn’t that far off at a majority short 60% as per the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report.
EUR/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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