EUR/USD: Germany in a recession, lockdown restrictions easing
Long-term technical bias remains negative, but CoT and retail sentiment are both majority long anticipating price gains.
EUR/USD Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Although the euro outperformed on Friday against the FX majors, it couldn't best the US dollar for the week in what was a lower finish for EUR/USD's price that didn't reach either of last week's Weekly pivot points. Although economic data on Friday out of the Eurozone confirmed the worst with Germany in a recession with an expected 2.2% contraction, it has been offset with news of lockdown restrictions easing, the latest being Italy set to ease travel restrictions on June 3. From a technical standpoint, the bias is still negative with the pair's price at the lower end of its long-term bear trend channel, though should USD and EUR diverge significantly this week and contrarian breakouts might be the outperforming strategy.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for EUR/USD
In sentiment, larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report remain heavy long at 65%, increasing euro longs by 2,708 lots and shorts by 867 lots.
EUR/USD Chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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