Daily Market Report: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD
USD continues to lag ahead of Fed speak tonight, AUDUSD technical overview on the verge of shifting
EURUSD: Bull trend initializes on the back of USD weakness
Four consecutive trading days of USD weakness have helped take USD-denominated pairs higher, and even though the euro didn’t outperform yesterday amongst the FX majors, it did manage to secure another day of gains.
While the technical overview is an initializing bull trend whereby nearly all its main technical indicators are flashing green, the catalyst for the recent moves has more to do with USD weakness than with euro strength. The case that an expected drop in Fed rates will reduce the attractiveness of the greenback is strong, but with nearly half of European government bonds in negative yielding territory, the readjustment here may be limited.
US Fed Chair Powell will be speaking today, with a dovish tone likely to affirm recent USD retracement, and with some US data released prior.
GBPUSD: Technicals continue to stall at short-term resistance level
Both pound and greenback were the main underperformers yesterday amongst the FX majors, limiting the cable’s gains and keeping its bear trend technical overview intact as it struggles to breach a short-term resistance level.
USD weakness has helped lift this pair’s price off the lows over the past four trading days, but any retracement in the greenback or a less-than-dovish Powell could easily reverse those gains. Tonight’s Fed Powell speech followed by tomorrow’s BoE Carney’s testimony will likely keep both aspects of this pair more volatile.
Meanwhile, retail bias has dropped by 4% to a majority long 72%, exact opposite the heavy short 72% bias held by institutional traders.
AUDUSD: RBA Lowe’s comments helped give the commodity currency the top performance award
The Australian dollar was the top performer yesterday following comments by the RBA’s Lowe, and with the greenback lagging significantly it was an easier finish higher and another dent in its current bear trend technical overview that continues to stall heavily, with little needed at this stage to shift its overview and take its price above its 50-day moving average.
A brief look at the long-term chart however, and it remains bearish with its bear trend line still intact. Commodity currencies have been outperforming, and Lowe’s comments aside, if fiscal policy globally increases then infrastructure projects will likely be the target, increasing the need for commodities.
From a monetary policy standpoint, further easing usually translates into more inflationary pressures, and some investors may want to hedge against it with some commodities.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
Start trading forex today
Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market
- Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
- Analyse with clear, fast charts
- Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps
See an FX opportunity?
Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.
- Log in to your demo
- Try a risk-free trade
- See whether your hunch pays off
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.
- Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
- Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
- See and react to breaking news in-platform
See an FX opportunity?
Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.
Live prices on most popular markets
- Forex
- Shares
- Indices
Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.
