Gold and oil CoT buy bias rises further into extreme territory

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Despite more volatile movement in gold prices, it stayed within its Weekly pivot points and just shy of its Weekly 1^st Resistance level, while on Friday conformist breakouts to the sell side were in for a failure on a lack of follow through and retracement back up by the end of the session. All its main technical indicators are flashing green, with upside bias offering little and doing so in a slow manner. the gold/silver ratio remained a non-story last week, opting to oscillate within the 99-101 handle.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

As for trader bias, longs continue to enter at these higher levels anticipating further price gains, with retail long bias rising into heavier territory since the start of last week on fresh long initiations, and for CoT (Commitment of Traders) speculators upping their bias to an extreme long 85% on an increase in gold longs by 31,064 lots outdoing an increase in shorts by 3,455 lots. They are majority long the remaining precious metals with silver at 68%, platinum at 76%, and palladium at 57%.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Oil prices broke through its 1^st Support level on a few occasions but failed to offer much downside follow through, with contrarian reversals outperforming instead as its price relatively oscillated and tested its current overview. Conflicting technicals on the weekly with more positive technical bias in the short-term, and combined with a trending ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) in need of more indicators before committing to a trend move. On the fundamental side, coronavirus cases rising in the US and dented travel may point to a prolonged recovery when it comes to oil demand, even with output cuts extended. In oil data, we witnessed another drop in the number of active US oil rigs out of Baker Hughes, but down only by one to 188 after consecutive significant drops at the start of the pandemic.

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IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Retail bias here has also risen since the start of last week following last Wednesday's plummet that enticed plenty of longs into entering. CoT speculators have also increased their majority buy bias, up to an extreme long 83%.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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