Gold and silver drop, oil edges higher
Both retail traders and CoT speculators continue to hold a majority long bias in all three.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold's bull trend technical overview continues to get tested in the current 'risk-on' environment witnessed in equities as lockdown restrictions ease, even if uncertainties persist not just on a second coronavirus wave but on worsening US-China relations with plans for a response from the former later in the week. From a technical standpoint while the Weekly overview is a stalling bull trend, the Daily overview is requiring less to shift its overview following repeated failures to make fresh highs. While commodity prices have been rising as the US dollar plummets, it has given preference to non-precious metals instead.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail long bias continues to edge higher and close to extreme long territory, and the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report from last Friday showed speculators increase gold longs by 17,623 lots and shorts by 8,663 lots.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
As with gold, silver prices also ended the session in the red and has continued to test the precious metal's stalling bull trend technical overview. Silver outperformed only slightly against its precious metal cousin, and in turn the gold/silver ratio has nearly undone the big move made in March that took the ratio from 98 to 126. Its price remains above its 200-day moving average.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
There's been no change on the sentiment front, retail traders holding an extreme long bias at 88% while CoT speculators unchanged at a heavy long 70% with the increase in silver long positions by 9,634 lots last week matched (in percentage terms) by the rise in short positions by 4,479 lots.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Volatility has dropped significantly for oil prices with its price hugging the highs and keeping most of its main technical indicators bullish on the Daily, and less so on the Weekly even if the ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) is showing an ongoing propensity to trend for both. Due to the US bank holiday on Monday, API's (American Petroleum Institute) oil inventories estimate will be released tonight instead, with EIA (Energy Information Administration) tomorrow.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Fresh longs continue to get enticed into initiating for retail traders, the bias still in majority buy territory at 62%. CoT speculator bias is in extreme long territory with both long and short positions dropping last week.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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