Gold and silver end higher, oil retreats slightly

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Slight gains for gold prices yesterday that failed to undo Friday's bigger losses and keep its price closing below its 50-day moving average. Equities finishing higher with yields dropping slightly, and in the FX market the US dollar was the worst performer amongst the FX majors. On the daily the main technicals are less bullish following what has been weeks of stalling at these highs (it's more bullish on the Weekly as seen in yesterday's report), with its price now below all its main short-term moving averages but combined with a trending ADX (Average Directional Movement Index). The economic calendar is relatively light save for tomorrow's big fundamental US Federal Reserve results.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

From a sentiment standpoint, fresh longs in gold have been quite swift to close out as its price bounced off a short-term support level (while some shorts initiate), and that's taken the bias from an extreme long 80% to a heavy long 75% as of this morning.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Silver prices registered significant gains yesterday to finish just below its Weekly 1^st Resistance level and undo Friday's losses, but already a part of those gains have been tested this morning. With gold an underperformer yesterday (but still finishing higher), the gold/silver ratio finished slightly lower and over the past few days has been oscillating within the 95-97 range giving spread traders little momentum. The technical overview for silver remains bullish with most of its main technical indicators flashing green, but keep in mind we've got the Fed's announcement tomorrow.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

Retail traders aren't undoing fresh longs at this stage, adding instead following yesterday's increase to take the bias a notch higher to an extreme long 89%.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Although oil prices offered fresh intraday highs yesterday, it ended with a lower finish. A brief look at the daily chart and its clear its bull trend line is still holding in what has been a consistent move higher, though as mentioned previously getting the energy commodity's price up to these levels has been the easy part given a lack of hedging from higher-cost US shale producers below these levels and economic reopening as lockdown restrictions ease. Beyond these levels and it'll be more enticing to restart production, and in turn we could see more sell orders to hedge and lock in that production, testing conformist breakout strategies and aiding contrarian reversal instead.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

In sentiment, retail traders have been quick to hop on anticipating further price gains, and the slight retracement has taken the bias from a heavy long 66% yesterday towards extreme long levels at 77%.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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