Gold and silver long bias rises, oil recovers slightly following API

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

It's a significant day not just for the US dollar – which gold is priced in – but also for the precious metal in it of itself, whose non-yielding characteristics would benefit should the US Federal Reserve point towards downside risks in the global economy or any hints of further rate cuts and continuity in its repo market operations. Thus far, the latest fundamental events have been a boon for the precious metal, but USD strength has resulted in retracement for gold prices, and in turn the weekend gap got filled.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

That has been a move opposite its current stalling bull trend technical overview, as well as trader positioning which remains heavy to extreme long for retail and institutional traders respectively, the former’s bias rising a notch to 68%.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

More so than gold, it was a day big on retracement for silver prices, putting another wrench in its current stalling bull trend technical overview with its price plummeting past its key pivot points and breaching its 50-day moving average in the process. Buy conformist strategies ought to be initiated only after a reversal, waiting for the key levels to be breached significantly first and waiting for a move back up should it occur. As with gold, it too will be affected by tonight's Fed event, where any perceived USD weakness could propel its price higher, while any avoidance of further easing may strength the greenback and put this pair's price into further retreat, potentially shifting its technical overview. Technicals are less relevant on this fundamental day, and expect pivot points to be more easily broken on a lack of liquidity at those levels.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

After suffering heavily for consecutive sessions, oil prices managed to recover for the session, and in the process fill the weekend gap. Hence, while the technical overview is seemingly bearish by looking at the main technical indicators, a volatile atmosphere should risk appetite shift and contrarian reversals on the absence of it has been more ideal. In oil data releases, API's (American Petroleum Institute) figure showed a 4.27M deficit following a 1.6M surplus last week, and EIA (Energy Information Administration) is up next expected to show a slight 0.7M increase. Reports regarding OPEC’s considerations of extending current output cuts three months more until June have yet to be confirmed and may be a case of attempting to provide a floor for oil prices.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

From a retail standpoint, any upside movement is a welcome relief for both retail and CoT (Commitment of Traders), both holding extreme long bias and hoping for upside movement.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

^* The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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