Gold and silver rise as greenback takes a hit, oil lags despite deficit
Retreating dollar aids gold and silver in finishing higher, while API deficit fails to give oil prices a green finish.
GOLD: Finishing higher against a battered greenback as rate cut likelihoods rise
Retail longs were in for some relief following retracement off the lows that was initiated based on fundamental factors with the catalyst being that US manufacturing has joined other global manufacturing sectors in contracting – and heavily for that matter. With manufacturing in recession, rate cut likelihoods rising (and with the Reserve Bank of Australia reducing rates by 0.25% and willing to increase easing if needed), global recessionary risks failing to subside, and the US president wanting a weaker dollar, the precious safe haven metal might have a leg to stand on. Retail bias stands now at 67% and down 3%, but with a significant portion of those of those longs initiated at higher prices, more will be needed to unwind those positions in profit.
SILVER: Enjoying a stronger finish but unable to recover Monday’s losses
While the pair’s price enjoyed a stronger finish (as was the case with gold) with the greenback in retreat and rate cut likelihoods out of the US Federal Reserve rising, it hasn’t been able to shrug off short-term negative technical bias (even if its weekly outlook is more bullish). Retail bias here however has risen, and stands at a staggering extreme long 88%.
OIL – US CRUDE: Dented demand and supply woes keep the energy commodity relatively rangebound
There continues to be conflicting factors keeping the energy commodity’s price in a bit of a tussle, as clear recessionary risks continue to dent its price but supply worries giving it a bit of a leg to stand on, with the latest estimate out of American Petroleum Institute (API) showing a significant 5.92M deficit and ahead of the Energy Information Agency’s (EIA) more encompassing estimate this evening set to show a 2M surplus this evening. Retail bias is still extreme long at 82% but down a couple notches, and with both retail and institutional traders holding extreme long bias.
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