Gold and silver tested again following unconfirmed tariff delay report
Slight intraday safe haven gains undone yesterday, oil finishes higher despite API surplus.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It's been a tough few months for gold's price, mostly range-bound and in line with its consolidatory technical outlook that has held for much of that period. However, while the outlook is consolidatory (on both daily and weekly), pivot points are set to get broken and tested this evening with the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement, affecting the dollar directly (which this commodity is priced in for this report), as well as gold given its a non-yielding precious metal that is negatively affected should fiat currency's interest rates remain above inflation.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold
A hawkish Fed would hurt gold prices, while anything dovish could give it a boost, and aid both retail and institutional traders who are both holding extreme long bias of 78% and 86% respectively.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It's been downside bias thus far for silver's price, with the price gains over the past two days doing little to undo its negative technical bias forming ahead of tonight's Fed event. However, technical bias means little given the fundamental event will force plenty of market makers into withdrawing market liquidity, and in the process making pivot points much less likely to hold.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver
More so than gold, retail traders here are significantly tested given they are holding an extreme long bias of 92% that has been little changed as of late. Also tested are larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report, and hence any downside price movement would pile more pressure on both.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The focus yesterday in terms of data was on API's (American Petroleum Institute) estimate in terms of US inventory changes, whereby the figure came in at a 1.4M surplus. However, EIA (Energy Information Administration) is up next, with expectations for a 2.9M deficit following last week's larger than expected 4.9M drawdown. The gains in oil have been driven by a combination of tested US inventories, a consistently falling US oil rig count, as well as last Friday’s larger than expected OPEC+ output reduction.
There's also tonight's Fed announcement to consider in the context of demand for the US dollar, and any trade announcement affecting appetite.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In terms of bias, the lack of a price change has meant a lack of a change in retail bias standing at a majority short 62%, moving a notch higher since yesterday morning.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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