Gold climbs, silver outperforms, oil craters
Retail long bias drops in gold and silver on profit-taking, oil extreme long bias rises as longs get stuck.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices were in for another climb higher only briefly breaching yesterday's 1st Resistance level offering little beyond it before aiding contrarian reversals this time around as its price (thus far) partially retraced back down. A flood of money from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and clear monetary easing has usually meant the non-yielding precious metal ought to be in for gains. And today's data out of the US later on includes US retail expected to show heavy contraction, as well as the Fed's Beige book.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
In sentiment, longs getting enticed into closing out as well as a minority of daring shorts has pushed heavy long bias amongst retail traders to 68% from 69% prior.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Silver prices were in for a session of gains to take its price just below its 50-day day moving average, but once again failing to take its price towards yesterday's key pivot points even if its finish was in line with its current technical overview that has been showing more bullish moves likely on the back of USD weakness. The gold/silver spread retraced back down a bit as silver outperformed.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
In sentiment, here too retail bias has dropped slightly to 91% but clearly remains in extreme long territory, and where the bulk of those longs have been initiated well above current market price.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It was another tough session for oil prices, despite an OPEC+ deal that hasn't been able to put a floor on oil prices just yet as the energy commodity's price made another move lower testing not just traders, but producers and governments heavily reliant on a higher oil price. Its price briefly breached yesterday's 1st Support level and since has been oscillating close to it, not giving long traders much breathing room. In oil data, API's (American Petroleum Institute) oil inventories showed a massive 13.14m surplus, and EIA (Energy Information Administration) is up next projected to show a similar sized surplus, even if it has been showing bigger increases compared to API as of late.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
As for sentiment, long traders continue to get tested here with extreme long bias for both retail and institutional traders, the bias amongst the former rising to 84%.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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