Gold gaps higher as short frenzy targets silver
Technical overview for both gold and silver volatile with gains benefitting extreme long CoT and retail traders, oil remains a stalling bull trend with sentiment there mixed.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices stayed within last week's Weekly levels, on the Daily aiding conformist reversals on Thursday while testing them with a move towards its 2nd Resistance on Friday. The precious metal in focus this time around however, was silver. Its price surged following a call by some Reddit posters to create a short squeeze, and in turn it ended the week in the green, and broke the gold/silver handle which had been stuck within the 72-74 ranges into the 65s this morning, levels unseen since July of 2016. In all, gold prices alone have been relatively sedate given the latest financial markets moves, the dollar finishing the week slightly higher while 10-year yields bounced off of intraweek lows.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold
Meanwhile, CoT speculators have increased their extreme buy bias from 83% to 85% on an increase in gold longs by 6,025 lots and shorts reduced by 4,883 lots. They aren't alone, as retail bias since the start of last week has risen from 83% to 87%. Silver retail bias is extreme long as well, but has dropped following the gap higher from 91% to 89%, CoT speculators heavy buy and rising to 74%. Platinum CoT bias is extreme at 82%, retail bias at 90%.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Stuck near the highs has been the theme for oil prices as of late, staying within its previous Weekly levels while testing conformist breakout strategies on both Thursday and Friday, both times contrarian reversals winning out on a lack of follow-through beyond the key levels, most of its key technical indicators on the Weekly flashing green but heavily tested on the Daily. In oil data, Baker Hughes oil rig count showed another consecutive increase, this time to 295 from 289 prior. Manufacturing data will be released throughout the day, PMIs out of China yesterday from CFLP a miss for this sector and more so for services.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI
CoT speculators have upped both long and short positioning in oil, the latter outdoing the former and taking extreme buy bias a notch lower to 80%. Retail bias fluctuated into majority short territory during the week, but starts off in the middle.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
** CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.
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