Gold lagged for the week while silver outperformed, oil in oscillation
Gold’s price retraced off the highs but both precious metals showing a bull trend technical overview, oil prices continued to consolidate.
GOLD: Higher highs but a lower finish for the week
Risk-off plays at the start of the week aided gold in making fresh highs, only for those gains to be undone especially as equities managed to retrace off the lows and the greenback regained lost ground in the FX market. Compared to silver, its surprisingly been the underperformer, though from a technical overview standpoint it remains a bull trend that while stalling on the daily, its bull trend line isn’t broken just yet on the weekly. Both long and short positions have risen from an institutional standpoint, up 10.3K lots for the former and 13.5K lots for the latter, and keeping overall institutional bias at extreme long levels of 85% dropping only a couple percent. Retail bias on the other hand, is up 6% to 65% buy bias anticipating further gains.
SILVER: The clear outperformer that hasn’t been dented by risk-off plays
Silver clearly outperformed last week, rising at the start of the week and giving up little gains since despite risk-off plays and a US dollar that has been anything but weak in the FX market. Yet for all its gains, it is keeping its technical overview in that of a bull trend that accelerated last week, and whereby institutional bias is up 4% on a rise in silver longs by 7.5K lots and a simultaneous reduction in shorts by 5.6K lots. Retail bias is still at extreme long levels but down 7% for the week on long profit-taking.
OIL – US CRUDE: Ongoing consolidatory moves befitting its consolidatory overview
On the weekly chart, its bear trend line is still intact as its price briefly crossed below the 200-week moving average (and finished below both the 50-day and 200-day MA’s on Friday). All its main technical indicators are neutral on the weekly and combined with a trending ADX, yet the energy commodity will be open to any significant risk-on/off plays should there be a change in US-China trade risks. The demand side remains weak on rising global recessionary worries, while over on the supply side output is still rising even if US energy bankruptcies are on the rise. In terms of bias, retail sentiment dropped 5% for the week on range-trading profit-taking, though Friday’s harsh price drop alone resulted in a 10% increase in long bias as shorts got out and longs initiated. Institutional bias is still extreme long but long positions have been reduced by 15.5K lots and a simultaneous increase in shorts by 7.5K lots.
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