Gold prices plummet, oil rises
US-Russia-Saudi join action in oil unlikely, API posts 10.5M surplus.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
After two days of relative oscillation, conformist traders were in for a treat with a break of yesterday’s 1st Support level (and the 50-day moving average) that took its price very close to its 2nd Support level. It has since partially recovered as of this morning, and where the US Federal Reserve's announcement of its FIMA (Foreign International Monetary Authorities) repo facility to ease global US dollar illiquidity may weaken the US dollar, and in turn aid products priced in the US dollar should that liquidity make its way into the global financial and eventually commodities markets. There will also be significant US data this evening that could make the US dollar the more active FX pair as the country is on the verge of becoming the new epicenter of the virus.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
In sentiment, retail bias is unchanged at a heavy long 76%, tested alongside institutional traders holding a heavier 91% long bias.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Both gold and silver were in for retreat yesterday, but silver's price movement was far more rangebound and didn't reach either end of its key pivot points, and in turn not offering a play for conformist nor contrarian strategies. Gold underperforming compared to silver meant that the gold/silver ratio has dropped slightly into the 112s, with silver needing to outperform by a significant margin to undo the gains in the ratio over the past five weeks.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Despite finishing yesterday's session with a higher price (for a change), oil prices failed to reach either end of yesterday's key pivot points, but where it has continued to test oil producers, suppliers, and anything else oil-related. Talk that the US may join any potential Russia-Saudi talks regarding propping up oil prices to aid each of their respective energy sectors hasn't gained traction, and thus far physical oil has been selling for far less than financial. In oil data, API's (American Petroleum Institute) US crude oil stocks showed a 10.5M surplus, no surprise given the majors prepare to flood the world with oil at a time when demand is plummeting. EIA's (Energy Information Administration) estimate is up next, with expectations for a significant surplus.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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